Jack Drury
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots80 × 0.1+8
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1441 × 0.01+14.4
- total73 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24273 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 73 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for NSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.6% (373 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.0%, worth PD +0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33.3% | 80.0% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 38 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:47 | 1 | 0 | 69 | 2.9% | 53.2% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 74 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 4 | 33 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 12:17 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 7.5% | 55.3% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 39 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:53 | 1 | 0 | 60 | 5.0% | 58.8% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 33 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:58 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 15.2% | 56.6% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 82 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 15 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 10.1% | 58.1% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 19 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 11.1% | 48.2% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 11 | 16 | 28 | — | 33 | — | 0 | — | 16:23 | — | — | 111 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Joel Kiviranta (2025-25) · Nico Sturm (2025-25) · Colin Blackwell (2025-25) · Jesper Boqvist (2025-25) · Anders Bjork (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 09:02 | EV | Assist | Colton (Drury, #?) → 2-1 | Colton · Drury · Edstrom Struble · Hunt | Buchnevich · McMichael · Neighbours · McTavish · Kaskimaki · Dvorsky Fowler · Parayko · Barron · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs CAR | |||||
| P3 19:19 | EV | Assist | Colton (Skjei, Drury) → 4-1 | Kerfoot · Colton · Drury · Edstrom · Schaefer · Pinchuk Skjei · Perbix · Struble · Hunt | Deslauriers · Jankowski · Aho · Robinson · Kotkaniemi · Jarvis · Stankoven Gostisbehere · Slavin · Valimaki · Walker Kochetkov (G) |
| Oct 25 · vs COL | |||||
| P2 16:36 | EV | Goal | #? (Colton, Skjei) → 4-0 | Colton · Edstrom Wilsby · Skjei | MacKinnon · Lehkonen · Necas Kulak · Malinski Wedgewood (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jack over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Edstrom NSH | 120 | 10 | |
| Ross Colton NSH | 89 | 10 | |
| Brady Skjei NSH | 83 | 10 | |
| Nick Perbix NSH | 79 | 10 | |
| Adam Wilsby NSH | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats