Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 78?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals33 × 3+99
- proj assists33 × 1+33
- PP points28 × 0.5+14
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots243 × 0.1+24.3
- PIM61 × 0.05+3.1
- ice time (min)1599 × 0.01+16
- total189 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242189 = 78/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 189 points is 78 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for BUF.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 17.3% shooting on 52 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.2% (502 shots before this season) — that's 2.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.3 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.5%, worth PD +5.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Ostlund 9.3%, Benson 4.3%, Dahlin 6.8%, Power 8.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Sabres | 75 | 14 | 23 | 37 | -7 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13:51 | 2 | 0 | 126 | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 27 | 9 | 10 | 19 | -1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:38 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 16.1% | 33.3% |
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 74 | 15 | 24 | 39 | -18 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 14:52 | 3 | 0 | 123 | 12.2% | 14.3% |
| 2025-26 | Sabres | 82 | 20 | 31 | 51 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 15:39 | 4 | 0 | 191 | 10.5% | 25.0% |
| 2026-27 | Sabres | 19 | 9 | 10 | 19 | -1 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 19:05 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 17.3% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Sabres | 84 | 33 | 33 | 66 | — | 53 | — | 18 | — | 17:30 | — | — | 196 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Logan Cooley (2025-25) · Josh Norris (2025-25) · Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25) · Dylan Holloway (2025-25) · Josh Doan (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CHI | |||||
| P1 09:00 | EV | Assist | Power (Norris, Quinn) → 1-0 | Zucker · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kulich Crevier · Power · Zellweger | Kane · Mangiapane · Greenway · Smith · Greene · Frondell Vlasic · Kaiser · Mastro · Rinzel Knight (G) |
| P1 15:46 | PP | Assist | Thompson (Quinn, Dahlin) → 2-1 | Thompson · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kulich · Ostlund · Benson Timmins · Dahlin · Power | Bertuzzi · Greenway · Greene · Bedard · Kantserov Cole · Vlasic · Kaiser · Rinzel Knight (G) |
| Nov 11 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 19:32 | EV | Assist | Zucker (Ostlund, Quinn) → 2-4 | Zucker · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kozak · Ostlund Samuelsson · Power | Girgensons · Holmberg · Mikheyev McDonagh · Carlson · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P1 06:50 | EV | Goal | Quinn (Power, #?) → 1-0 | Zucker · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kulich Power · Zellweger · Metsa | Coyle · Garland · Olivier · Sillinger · Knies · Fantilli Severson · Werenski · Fabbro · Christiansen Greaves (G) |
| P2 10:53 | EV | Assist | Doan (Ostlund, Quinn) → 5-1 | Thompson · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund · Benson Dahlin · Zellweger · Metsa | Coyle · Monahan · Nichushkin · Olivier · Johnson Werenski · Fabbro · Christiansen · Mateychuk Greaves (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jack over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Ostlund BUF | 167 | 10 | |
| Zach Benson BUF | 89 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin BUF | 81 | 8 | |
| Owen Power BUF | 73 | 10 | |
| Josh Doan BUF | 60 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats