Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 65?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists41 × 1+41
- PP points32 × 0.5+16
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots126 × 0.1+12.6
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)1216 × 0.01+12.2
- total157 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242157 = 65/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 157 points is 65 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.0 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.8% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.1% (1625 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.2 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.3%, worth PD +2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Strome 9.4%, Tuch 26.2%, Chychrun 4.0%, Hutson 15.6%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Blues | 16 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:40 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6.3% | 100.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 28 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:54 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 10.3% | 40.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 55 | 14 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14:25 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 14.3% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blues | 74 | 27 | 48 | 75 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 16:35 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 14.4% | 40.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 79 | 37 | 36 | 73 | -38 | 22 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 18:00 | 5 | 1 | 272 | 13.6% | 35.7% |
| 2023-24 | Blues | 82 | 31 | 36 | 67 | -12 | 22 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 18:20 | 4 | 0 | 251 | 12.4% | 33.3% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 82 | 36 | 34 | 70 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 17:29 | 4 | 0 | 239 | 15.1% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 72 | 18 | 28 | 46 | -5 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 15:44 | 2 | 0 | 173 | 10.4% | 18.8% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -9 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14:33 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 25 | 41 | 66 | — | 25 | — | 20 | — | 14:47 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brady Tkachuk (2025-25) · Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Nikolaj Ehlers (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs DAL | |||||
| P2 11:00 | PP | Goal | #? (Strome, Hutson) → 1-4 | Ovechkin · Wilson · Strome Hutson | Steel · Hyry Myers · Lindell Oettinger (G) |
| P2 19:30 | PP | Assist | #? (Strome, Kyrou) → 3-5 | Ovechkin · Wilson · Strome · Kyrou | Faksa · Kiviranta Lindell · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| P3 18:58 | EV | Assist | #? (Kyrou, Chychrun) → 5-6 | Jenner · Kyrou · Sourdif · Protas Chychrun | Hintz · Robertson · Hyry Lundkvist · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ NSH | |||||
| P3 10:09 | EV | Assist | Tuch (Kyrou, Chychrun) → 4-3 | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Roy · Chychrun | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Bourque Josi · Wilsby Saros (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | |||||
| P2 07:14 | PP | Goal | #? (Strome, Chychrun) → 2-1 | Ovechkin · Strome · Wilson Chychrun | Couturier · Acciari Sanheim · York Woll (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jordan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome WSH | 117 | 10 | |
| Alex Tuch WSH | 86 | 10 | |
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 73 | 10 | |
| Cole Hutson WSH | 60 | 10 | |
| Timothy Liljegren WSH | 41 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats