Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 52?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals24 × 3+72
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots163 × 0.1+16.3
- PIM99 × 0.05+5
- ice time (min)1206 × 0.01+12.1
- total125 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242125 = 52/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 125 points is 52 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.8/10 season baseline.
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for MTL — missed 1 game (2026-11-07).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.6
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 21.2% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.5% (1260 shots before this season) — that's 3.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.0%, worth PD +5.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Kreider 14.3%, Guhle 11.8%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Blue Jackets | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Blue Jackets | 12 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Blue Jackets | 78 | 17 | 12 | 29 | 12 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 3 | 0 | 119 | 14.3% | 27.6% |
| 2017-18 | Blue Jackets | 63 | 19 | 11 | 30 | -1 | 42 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 18:02 | 5 | 2 | 188 | 10.1% | 41.9% |
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 27 | 20 | 47 | 25 | 60 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 17:01 | 5 | 0 | 230 | 11.7% | 31.6% |
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 26 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 1.6% | 36.8% |
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 52 | 17 | 7 | 24 | -10 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16:25 | 5 | 0 | 125 | 13.6% | 58.3% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 69 | 19 | 13 | 32 | -25 | 65 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17:14 | 1 | 0 | 151 | 12.6% | 47.6% |
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 69 | 21 | 11 | 32 | -8 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16:58 | 5 | 0 | 164 | 12.8% | 43.2% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 78 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -18 | 74 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:28 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 6.4% | 48.4% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 81 | 15 | 12 | 27 | -2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:19 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 13.8% | 59.2% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 72 | 14 | 9 | 23 | -4 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:01 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 15.7% | 69.7% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 18 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 23.5% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 24 | 17 | 41 | — | 74 | — | 0 | — | 14:42 | — | — | 151 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jack Roslovic (2025-25) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Bobby McMann (2025-25) · Corey Perry (2025-25) · Nick Robertson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ BOS | |||||
| P1 08:36 | EV | Goal | Anderson (Evans, Matheson) → 2-0 | Anderson · Evans · Suzuki · Dach · Caufield · Slafkovský Matheson · Dobson · Guhle · Hutson | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Mittelstadt · Peterka · Khusnutdinov Borgen · McAvoy · Lohrei · Brunet Swayman (G) |
| P2 04:24 | EV | Assist | Evans (Anderson) → 3-0 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans Matheson · Guhle | Pastrnak · Eyssimont · Geekie · Peterka · Minten Lindholm · McAvoy · Lohrei · Brunet Swayman (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 18:18 | EV | Goal | Anderson (Kreider, Guhle) → 2-0 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Carrier · Guhle | Niederreiter · Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Koepke · Björck Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk · Salomonsson Skinner (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 03:05 | EV | Goal | Anderson (Kreider) → 2-1 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Carrier · Dobson · Guhle · Hutson | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Lapierre · Koivunen · Kuzmenko Karlsson · Girard · Stastney · Korczak Murashov (G) |
| P2 02:21 | EV | Assist | Kreider (Xhekaj, Anderson) → 4-2 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Kapanen · Beck · Xhekaj Xhekaj · Engstrom | Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson · Lapierre · Koivunen · Kuzmenko Letang · Girard · Korczak · Carlile Murashov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Josh over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kreider MTL | 89 | 10 | |
| Jake Evans MTL | 71 | 10 | |
| Kaiden Guhle MTL | 66 | 10 | |
| Alexandre Carrier MTL | 63 | 10 | |
| Alex Newhook MTL | 62 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats