Judd Caulfield
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists26 × 1+26
- PP points15 × 0.5+7.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots104 × 0.1+10.4
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1143 × 0.01+11.4
- total115 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242115 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 115 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 13 of 15 for ANA — missed 2 games (2026-10-20, 2026-10-22).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 19.0% shooting on 21 shots against a league forward baseline of 13.5% — no career track record yet — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.9%, worth PD +1.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 17 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13:36 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 19.0% | 14.3% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 20 | 26 | 46 | — | 19 | — | 9 | — | 14:15 | — | — | 122 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 06:15 | EV | Assist | Mintyukov (Caulfield, Granlund) → 3-2 | Granlund · Caulfield · Gauthier · Carlsson Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov | Nugent-Hopkins · Dickinson · Formenton · Dach Murphy · Walman · Shea · Bouchard Tomkins (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs OTT | |||||
| P2 03:33 | EV | Goal | Caulfield (Warren, Carlsson) → 2-3 | Killorn · Granlund · Caulfield · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe · Mintyukov · Warren | Cousins · Batherson · Cozens · Tomasino · Pinto · Halliday Chabot · Spence · Sanderson · Zub Johansson (G) |
| P2 19:18 | PP | Goal | Caulfield (Luneau, Nesterenko) → 3-3 | Killorn · Greer · Caulfield · Nesterenko · Malott · McQueen · Washe Helleson · Luneau · Mintyukov | Zetterlund · Cozens · Pinto · Greig · Stützle Kleven · Sanderson · Zub · Matinpalo Johansson (G) |
| P3 15:19 | PP | Assist | McQueen (Caulfield, Luneau) → 6-3 | Killorn · Granlund · Caulfield · Nesterenko · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke · McQueen LaCombe · Luneau | Amadio · Pinto · Greig · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Kleven · Matinpalo Johansson (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs BUF | |||||
| P3 18:52 | EV | Assist | Luneau (Caulfield) → 5-7 | Killorn · Granlund · Greer · Caulfield · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe · Luneau | Thompson · Krebs · Quinn · Kozak · Ostlund · Benson Samuelsson · Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Judd over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson ANA | 93 | 10 | |
| Alex Killorn ANA | 85 | 10 | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 73 | 10 | |
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 47 | 10 | |
| Drew Helleson ANA | 46 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats