Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists41 × 1+41
- PP points19 × 0.5+9.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots196 × 0.1+19.6
- PIM84 × 0.05+4.2
- ice time (min)1520 × 0.01+15.2
- total132 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242132 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 132 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for MTL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −7.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.8% shooting on 42 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.8% (792 shots before this season) — that's 3.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.8 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.1%, worth PD −7.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 39 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -13 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:13 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 9.5% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 82 | 20 | 30 | 50 | -19 | 55 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 17:56 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 13.2% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 79 | 18 | 33 | 51 | 4 | 45 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 17:21 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 13.5% | 26.3% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 82 | 30 | 43 | 73 | 9 | 52 | 15 | 28 | 0 | 18:32 | 4 | 0 | 180 | 16.7% | 32.8% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 19 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 18:12 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 4.4% | 29.4% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 14 | 41 | 56 | — | 67 | — | 26 | — | 16:56 | — | — | 171 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Elias Pettersson (2025-25) · Luke Evangelista (2025-25) · Kaapo Kakko (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 15:25 | EV | Assist | #? (Slafkovský, Dobson) → 1-2 | Caufield · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson | Schmaltz · McBain · Guenther Weegar · Sergachev Cossa (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs WPG | |||||
| P2 04:00 | PP | Assist | #? (Dobson, Slafkovský) → 3-0 | Danault · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson | Lowry Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| P3 00:46 | PP | Assist | #? (Hutson, Slafkovský) → 4-0 | Newhook · Bolduc · Slafkovský Hutson | Iafallo · Barron DeMelo · Ferraro Skinner (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 16:32 | EV | Assist | Caufield (Engstrom, Slafkovský) → 3-1 | Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Xhekaj · Engstrom | Benn · Kiviranta · Hyry Lundkvist · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 25 · @ WPG | |||||
| P2 11:04 | EV | Assist | Guhle (Caufield, Slafkovský) → 2-0 | Caufield · Slafkovský · Kapanen Matheson · Guhle | Vilardi · Björck · Connor Ferraro · Salomonsson Skinner (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Juraj over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield MTL | 160 | 10 | |
| Nick Suzuki MTL | 118 | 7 | |
| Lane Hutson MTL | 104 | 10 | |
| Kaiden Guhle MTL | 62 | 10 | |
| Alexandre Carrier MTL | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats