Justin Sourdif
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 37?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots90 × 0.1+9
- PIM60 × 0.05+3
- ice time (min)1149 × 0.01+11.5
- total90 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24290 = 37/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 90 points is 37 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 11 of 13 for WSH — missed 2 games (2026-10-17, 2026-10-20).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 20.0% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.6% (110 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.8%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 78 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 17 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14:44 | 1 | 1 | 108 | 13.9% | 45.9% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 15 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 17 | 15 | 32 | — | 51 | — | 2 | — | 14:22 | — | — | 118 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 8 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs DAL | |||||
| P3 12:55 | EV | Goal | #? (Beauvillier, Protas) → 4-6 | Beauvillier · Protas Liljegren · Ivany | Perron · Steel · Hryckowian Lindell · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs MIN | |||||
| P2 19:54 | EV | Goal | #? (Hutson, Beauvillier) → 1-2 | Ovechkin · Beauvillier Chychrun · Hutson | Hartman · Trenin · Kaprizov Brodin · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs BUF | |||||
| P2 17:24 | EV | Assist | Strome (Sourdif, Fehérváry) → 3-2 | Strome · Protas · Sourdif Roy · Fehérváry | Benson · Quinn · Thompson · Ostlund Gilbert · Crevier Luukkonen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Justin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boone Jenner WSH | 56 | 10 | |
| Martin Fehervary WSH | 55 | 10 | |
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 51 | 10 | |
| Timothy Liljegren WSH | 45 | 10 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier WSH | 44 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats