Kiefer Sherwood
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 35?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots152 × 0.1+15.2
- PIM72 × 0.05+3.6
- ice time (min)1329 × 0.01+13.3
- total85 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24285 = 35/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 85 points is 35 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.4/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.8
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 5.3% shooting on 38 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.8% (584 shots before this season) — that's 2.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.5 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.2%, worth PD −3.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Ducks | 50 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 1 | 0 | 60 | 10.0% | 43.8% |
| 2019-20 | Ducks | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 16 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:48 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:34 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11.1% | 100.0% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 32 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:36 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 12.3% | 60.0% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 68 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 17 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 2 | 0 | 110 | 9.1% | 48.4% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 78 | 19 | 21 | 40 | -1 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14:53 | 6 | 1 | 141 | 13.5% | 42.9% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 44 | 17 | 6 | 23 | -12 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 17:32 | 2 | 1 | 109 | 15.6% | 40.6% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 28 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -8 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:50 | 1 | 0 | 63 | 9.5% | 27.3% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 21 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -6 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15:49 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 5.3% | 42.9% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 10 | 21 | 31 | — | 61 | — | 9 | — | 15:35 | — | — | 147 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Alexandre Texier (2025-25) · Andreas Johnsson (2021-21) · Barrett Hayton (2025-25) · Denis Gurianov (2022-22).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · vs OTT | |||||
| P1 16:06 | EV | Assist | #? (Trouba, Sherwood) → 1-1 | Marchment · Sherwood Trouba · Dickinson | Cousins · Bourgault · Halliday Kleven · Matinpalo Ersson (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs VAN | |||||
| P3 10:50 | EV | Assist | Marchment (Sherwood, Allan) → 3-2 | Marchment · Sherwood · Misa Orlov · Allan | Karlsson · Rossi · Ohgren Oleksiak · Willander Merilainen (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ BOS | |||||
| P2 13:34 | SH | Goal | Sherwood → 2-2 | Sherwood · Graf Dickinson · Kesselring | Zacha · Lindholm · Geekie · Pastrnak McAvoy Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kiefer over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment SJS | 87 | 10 | |
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 65 | 10 | |
| Michael Misa SJS | 65 | 10 | |
| Michael Kesselring SJS | 57 | 10 | |
| Sam Dickinson SJS | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats