Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 49?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals24 × 3+72
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots115 × 0.1+11.5
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1192 × 0.01+11.9
- total118 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242118 = 49/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 118 points is 49 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 5.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.5/10 season baseline.
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for VAN — missed 1 game (2026-10-22).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 23.1% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.3% (127 shots before this season) — that's 3.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.9 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.9%, worth PD +4.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Rossi 9.4%, Karlsson 12.1%, Buium 0.0%, Hronek 4.5%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Wild | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:06 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 51 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 11.6% | 41.2% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 19 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 23.1% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 24 | 19 | 42 | — | 38 | — | 2 | — | 14:34 | — | — | 127 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ WPG | |||||
| P1 06:51 | EV | Goal | Ohgren (Rossi, Lekkerimaki) → 1-2 | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Rossi · Lekkerimaki · Ohgren Oleksiak · Hronek · Pettersson · Buium | Lowry · Iafallo · Barron · Koepke · Rosén · Björck DeMelo · Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 06:04 | PP | Goal | Ohgren (Rossi, Cotter) → 1-1 | Gallagher · Karlsson · Cotter · O'Connor · Rossi · Ohgren · Sasson Oleksiak · Buium | Killorn · Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke · Washe Helleson · LaCombe · Mintyukov · Warren Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ SJS | |||||
| P2 18:56 | EV | Goal | Ohgren (Hronek) → 2-0 | Cotter · Rossi · Bains · Ohgren · Sasson Oleksiak · Hronek · Pettersson · Willander | Goodrow · Sherwood · Dellandrea · Bystedt · Stenberg Orlov · Nurse · Kesselring · Allan Askarov (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ ANA | |||||
| P2 06:36 | EV | Goal | Ohgren (Karlsson, Buium) → 1-1 | Rossi · Ohgren · Karlsson Buium · Hronek | Nesterenko · Killorn · McQueen Hinds · Luneau Dostal (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Liam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rossi VAN | 69 | 8 | |
| Linus Karlsson VAN | 56 | 10 | |
| Zeev Buium VAN | 49 | 10 | |
| Filip Hronek VAN | 46 | 10 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak VAN | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats