Macklin Celebrini
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals34 × 3+102
- proj assists59 × 1+59
- PP points44 × 0.5+22
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots349 × 0.1+34.9
- PIM62 × 0.05+3.1
- ice time (min)1964 × 0.01+19.6
- total244 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242244 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 244 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −6.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.1% shooting on 79 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.4% (523 shots before this season) — that's 2.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (10.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.5%, worth PD −6.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 70 | 25 | 38 | 63 | -31 | 28 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 19:47 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 10.6% | 48.2% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 82 | 45 | 70 | 115 | 8 | 44 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 21:19 | 5 | 2 | 287 | 15.7% | 48.6% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 19 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -3 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 23:23 | 1 | 1 | 79 | 10.1% | 48.2% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 34 | 59 | 93 | — | 55 | — | 39 | — | 20:12 | — | — | 258 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jack Hughes (2025-25) · Macklin Celebrini (2025-25) · Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Martin Necas (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PIT | |||||
| P3 11:32 | EV | Goal | Celebrini (Kesselring, Smith) → 1-2 | Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Nurse · Kesselring | Crosby · Robertson · Kindel Karlsson · Stastney Murashov (G) |
| P3 15:49 | EV | Assist | Marchment (Celebrini, Dickinson) → 2-2 | Marchment · Sherwood · Celebrini Trouba · Dickinson | Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Karlsson · Stastney Murashov (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 07:22 | EV | Assist | #? (Celebrini, Smith) → 1-0 | Smith · Celebrini Trouba · Dickinson | Hintz · Kiviranta · Hyry Harley · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| P2 02:47 | EV | Assist | #? (Celebrini, #?) → 2-3 | Toffoli · Celebrini Orlov · Dickinson | Seguin · Steel · Hryckowian Myers · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| P2 17:02 | PP | Assist | #? (Marchment, Celebrini) → 3-4 | Toffoli · Marchment · Celebrini · Stenberg | Steel Myers · Lindell Oettinger (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Macklin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith SJS | 182 | 10 | |
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 73 | 10 | |
| Darnell Nurse SJS | 72 | 10 | |
| Ivar Stenberg SJS | 69 | 10 | |
| Michael Misa SJS | 68 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats