Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 44?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots149 × 0.1+14.9
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1294 × 0.01+12.9
- total107 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242107 = 44/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 107 points is 44 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.1 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Availability: played 13 of 15 for VAN — missed 2 games (2026-10-17, 2026-10-20).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.4% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.4% (387 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.6%, worth PD −2.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Wild | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 31.8% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0% | 47.3% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 82 | 21 | 19 | 40 | -4 | 47 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 16:44 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 12.6% | 44.7% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 82 | 24 | 36 | 60 | 3 | 26 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 18:15 | 3 | 2 | 136 | 17.6% | 46.8% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 17 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18:06 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 14.8% | 48.6% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 33 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 17:09 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 20.5% | 49.6% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 18 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:24 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 9.4% | 52.4% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 17 | 22 | 39 | — | 34 | — | 13 | — | 15:19 | — | — | 145 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonatan Berggren (2025-25) · Frank Nazar (2025-25) · Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Kent Johnson (2025-25) · Anton Lundell (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ WPG | |||||
| P1 06:51 | EV | Assist | Ohgren (Rossi, Lekkerimaki) → 1-2 | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Rossi · Lekkerimaki · Ohgren Oleksiak · Hronek · Pettersson · Buium | Lowry · Iafallo · Barron · Koepke · Rosén · Björck DeMelo · Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 06:04 | PP | Assist | Ohgren (Rossi, Cotter) → 1-1 | Gallagher · Karlsson · Cotter · O'Connor · Rossi · Ohgren · Sasson Oleksiak · Buium | Killorn · Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke · Washe Helleson · LaCombe · Mintyukov · Warren Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 10:37 | EV | Assist | Lekkerimäki (Rossi, Buium) → 2-5 | Rossi · Cotter · Lekkerimäki Willander · Buium | Arvidsson · Finnie · DeBrincat Chiarot · Seider Postava (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Marco over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Ohgren VAN | 70 | 10 | |
| Linus Karlsson VAN | 57 | 10 | |
| Zeev Buium VAN | 55 | 10 | |
| Filip Hronek VAN | 53 | 10 | |
| Paul Cotter VAN | 53 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats