Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots103 × 0.1+10.3
- PIM168 × 0.05+8.4
- ice time (min)909 × 0.01+9.1
- total98 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24298 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 98 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.6% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.9% (300 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.7%, worth PD +0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Senators | 16 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 18.2% | 58.3% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 65 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -6 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:54 | 2 | 0 | 73 | 9.6% | 56.9% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 63 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:43 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 8.3% | 54.4% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 61 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -3 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 7.5% | 54.4% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 82 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 6 | 140 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12:37 | 4 | 0 | 100 | 12.0% | 60.8% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 12.0% | 63.0% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 16 | 22 | 37 | — | 114 | — | 1 | — | 12:34 | — | — | 118 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 15:04 | EV | Goal | Kastelic (Brunet, Jeannot) → 2-1 | Kuraly · Jeannot · Kastelic Lohrei · Brunet | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Brazeau · Lapierre · Koivunen Letang · Karlsson · Girard · Stastney Silovs (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs NSH | |||||
| P3 06:50 | EV | Goal | Kastelic (Poitras, Jeannot) → 5-0 | Kastelic · Poitras · Jeannot Borgen · Zadorov | Wood · O'Reilly · Stamkos Lyubushkin · Skjei Annunen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mark over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Jeannot BOS | 80 | 10 | |
| Matthew Poitras BOS | 47 | 8 | |
| William Borgen BOS | 43 | 10 | |
| Hampus Lindholm BOS | 34 | 10 | |
| Mason Lohrei BOS | 33 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats