Martin Necas
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 90?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals37 × 3+111
- proj assists52 × 1+52
- PP points27 × 0.5+13.5
- game-winning goals13 × 0.5+6.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots177 × 0.1+17.7
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1664 × 0.01+16.6
- total219 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242219 = 90/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 219 points is 90 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +8.4
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 25.0% shooting on 40 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.1% (1238 shots before this season) — that's 4.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.3 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 17.9%, worth PD +8.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His regular linemates run hot too (MacKinnon 14.5%, Lehkonen 31.0%, Makar 10.6%, Toews 16.7%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Hurricanes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Hurricanes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16.7% | 36.4% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 64 | 16 | 20 | 36 | -6 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14:10 | 3 | 0 | 88 | 18.2% | 27.1% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 53 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 17:17 | 3 | 2 | 114 | 12.3% | 46.2% |
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 78 | 14 | 26 | 40 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16:11 | 6 | 1 | 159 | 8.8% | 44.7% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 82 | 28 | 43 | 71 | 5 | 32 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 18:25 | 5 | 4 | 240 | 11.7% | 45.1% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 77 | 24 | 29 | 53 | -9 | 42 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 17:21 | 3 | 2 | 231 | 10.4% | 34.1% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 49 | 16 | 39 | 55 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 18:05 | 5 | 0 | 113 | 14.2% | 38.1% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 30 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 20:30 | 3 | 0 | 81 | 13.6% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 78 | 38 | 62 | 100 | 47 | 30 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 21:30 | 5 | 0 | 206 | 18.4% | 42.9% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 19:54 | 3 | 0 | 41 | 24.4% | 28.6% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 37 | 52 | 89 | — | 39 | — | 25 | — | 18:01 | — | — | 163 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · William Nylander (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · David Pastrnak (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 17:30 | EV | Goal | #? → 6-3 | Lehkonen · MacKinnon Toews · Makar | Nylander · Roslovic · Matthews · Cowan Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 09:46 | PP | Goal | #? (Hughes, Makar) → 1-0 | MacKinnon · Kelly · Hughes Makar | Compher · Rasmussen Englund · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
| P2 12:30 | PP | Assist | #? (Makar, Necas) → 2-0 | Kadri · Necas · Hughes Makar | Rasmussen · Dries Faulk · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
| P3 07:15 | EV | Goal | #? (MacKinnon, Toews) → 3-0 | Lehkonen · MacKinnon Toews · Makar | Copp · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Seider Tarasov (G) |
| P3 09:45 | PP | Assist | #? (MacKinnon, Necas) → 4-0 | Kadri · MacKinnon · Necas · Hughes | Compher · Dries Faulk · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Martin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon COL | 151 | 10 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen COL | 118 | 10 | |
| Cale Makar COL | 113 | 10 | |
| Devon Toews COL | 90 | 10 | |
| Sam Malinski COL | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats