Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points12 × 0.5+6
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots156 × 0.1+15.6
- PIM80 × 0.05+4
- ice time (min)1392 × 0.01+13.9
- total116 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242116 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 116 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 18:15/game over the last 6, up 15% from 15:55 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.8% shooting on 39 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.2% (725 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.0%, worth PD −0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 33 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 4.0% | 38.2% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 54 | 18 | 29 | 47 | 29 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:07 | 2 | 0 | 121 | 14.9% | 27.5% |
| 2022-23 | Stars | 68 | 12 | 19 | 31 | -6 | 80 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15:42 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 8.1% | 40.0% |
| 2023-24 | Stars | 81 | 22 | 31 | 53 | 22 | 54 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 15:04 | 3 | 0 | 150 | 14.7% | 44.4% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 62 | 22 | 25 | 47 | 15 | 53 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 15:20 | 4 | 0 | 134 | 16.4% | 48.0% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 29 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:57 | 1 | 0 | 46 | 8.7% | 32.3% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 39 | 15 | 17 | 32 | 21 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17:41 | 2 | 0 | 73 | 20.5% | 45.5% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 21 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:34 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 12.8% | 14.3% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 19 | 17 | 35 | — | 66 | — | 9 | — | 16:04 | — | — | 150 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Shane Pinto (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PIT | |||||
| P3 15:49 | EV | Goal | Marchment (Celebrini, Dickinson) → 2-2 | Marchment · Sherwood · Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Orlov · Trouba · Pohlkamp · Dickinson | Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson · Chinakhov · McGroarty · Kindel Karlsson · Stastney Murashov (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 17:02 | PP | Assist | Smith (Marchment, Celebrini) → 3-4 | Toffoli · Marchment · Smith · Celebrini · Misa · Stenberg | Steel · Kiviranta · Hryckowian Myers · Lindell · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs VAN | |||||
| P3 08:00 | PP | Assist | Smith (Orlov, Marchment) → 1-2 | Toffoli · Marchment · Bystedt · Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Orlov · Nurse · Kesselring | Boeser · Chytil · Cotter · Bains · Sasson Oleksiak · Mancini · Willander · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| P3 10:50 | EV | Goal | Marchment (Sherwood, Allan) → 3-2 | Marchment · Sherwood · Misa Orlov · Allan | Chytil · Karlsson · O'Connor · Rossi · Lekkerimaki · Ohgren Oleksiak · Hronek · Willander · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ BOS | |||||
| P3 04:03 | PP | Assist | Orlov (Stenberg, Marchment) → 3-2 | Smith · Marchment · Stenberg · Celebrini Orlov | Zacha · Khusnutdinov Borgen · Zadorov Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mason over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kiefer Sherwood SJS | 87 | 10 | |
| Will Smith SJS | 54 | 10 | |
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 53 | 10 | |
| Macklin Celebrini SJS | 53 | 10 | |
| Michael Misa SJS | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats