Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals24 × 3+72
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM26 × 0.05+1.3
- ice time (min)814 × 0.01+8.1
- total116 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242116 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 116 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (13 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 8:07/game over the last 6, down 26% from 10:55 earlier in the season.
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 8.3/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for BOS — missed 2 games (2026-10-31, 2026-11-05).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 26.7% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.0% (77 shots before this season) — that's 2.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.9%, worth PD +2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Kastelic 13.6%, Lohrei 17.6%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 33 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:24 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 12.5% | 43.7% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 33 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 3.4% | 45.7% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12.5% | 38.9% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 23.5% | 54.1% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 24 | 25 | 49 | — | 34 | — | 0 | — | 12:20 | — | — | 117 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · vs NSH | |||||
| P3 06:50 | EV | Assist | Kastelic (Poitras, Jeannot) → 5-0 | Kastelic · Poitras · Jeannot Borgen · Zadorov | Wood · O'Reilly · Stamkos Lyubushkin · Skjei Annunen (G) |
| Oct 20 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 02:09 | EV | Goal | Poitras (Brunet, Jeannot) → 1-0 | Jeannot · Geekie · Kastelic · Poitras Lohrei · Brunet | Blackwell · Faksa · Kiviranta Myers · Capobianco · Heiskanen · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 17 · @ LAK | |||||
| P3 13:36 | EV | Assist | Khusnutdinov (Poitras, Geekie) → 2-1 | Kuraly · Jeannot · Geekie · Kastelic · Khusnutdinov · Poitras Borgen · Aspirot · Lohrei · Brunet | Perry · Kempe · Panarin · Lee · Laferriere · Helenius Dumoulin · Ceci · Gustafsson · Clarke Forsberg (G) |
| Oct 16 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 16:20 | EV | Goal | Poitras (Hagens) → 4-2 | Pastrnak · Geekie · Mittelstadt · Minten · Poitras · Hagens Lindholm · Zadorov · McAvoy | Killorn · Greer · Malott · McQueen · Washe · Klepov Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov Dostal (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Matthew over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Jeannot BOS | 66 | 10 | |
| Mark Kastelic BOS | 65 | 10 | |
| Mason Lohrei BOS | 36 | 10 | |
| William Borgen BOS | 32 | 10 | |
| Hampus Lindholm BOS | 28 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats