Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 66?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points31 × 0.5+15.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots190 × 0.1+19
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1538 × 0.01+15.4
- total159 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242159 = 66/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 159 points is 66 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.5 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for NJD.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.2
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 18.6% shooting on 43 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.3% (1343 shots before this season) — that's 2.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.7 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.5%, worth PD +4.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Meier 4.1%, Evangelista 8.9%, Hughes 14.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Devils | 82 | 20 | 32 | 52 | 10 | 26 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16:19 | 2 | 0 | 180 | 11.1% | 42.9% |
| 2018-19 | Devils | 69 | 17 | 30 | 47 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 18:06 | 3 | 3 | 160 | 10.6% | 45.2% |
| 2019-20 | Devils | 58 | 14 | 22 | 36 | -16 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 18:04 | 1 | 0 | 123 | 11.4% | 51.7% |
| 2020-21 | Devils | 21 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -9 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18:31 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 13.6% | 56.2% |
| 2021-22 | Devils | 70 | 21 | 39 | 60 | -1 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 19:21 | 2 | 1 | 153 | 13.7% | 52.1% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 81 | 31 | 49 | 80 | 33 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 19:17 | 9 | 2 | 256 | 12.1% | 53.9% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 71 | 27 | 40 | 67 | -5 | 12 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 19:29 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 14.8% | 56.6% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 75 | 35 | 34 | 69 | 9 | 20 | 14 | 29 | 0 | 20:23 | 3 | 0 | 187 | 18.7% | 55.5% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 82 | 28 | 38 | 66 | -6 | 29 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 20:43 | 6 | 3 | 211 | 13.3% | 55.8% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 20 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 18:19 | 2 | 0 | 43 | 18.6% | 57.3% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 27 | 22 | 49 | — | 33 | — | 26 | — | 17:06 | — | — | 169 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Bo Horvat (2025-25) · Valeri Nichushkin (2025-25) · Rickard Rakell (2025-25) · Chris Kreider (2025-25) · Tyler Bertuzzi (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 08:28 | EV | Assist | Meier (Chisholm, Hischier) → 1-0 | Meier · Hischier · Evangelista Kovacevic · Chisholm | Tavares · Nylander · McKenna McCabe · Raddysh Stolarz (G) |
| P3 09:49 | PP | Goal | #? (Hughes, Bratt) → 3-0 | Brown · Bratt · Hughes Hughes | Blueger · Paul McCabe · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P3 06:08 | EV | Assist | #? (Pesce, Hischier) → 3-4 | Meier · Hischier Pesce · Hughes | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom Pelech · DeAngelo Sorokin (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs EDM | |||||
| P2 15:35 | PP | Assist | #? (Brown, Hischier) → 3-1 | Brown · Bratt · Hischier Hughes | McDavid · Formenton Murphy · Shea Jarry (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 02:41 | EV | Goal | Hischier (Evangelista, Kovacevic) → 1-0 | Hischier · Brown · Meier · Evangelista Dillon · Kovacevic · Pesce · Hughes | Robertson · Hintz · Seguin Lundkvist · Bichsel DeSmith (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nico over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier NJD | 116 | 10 | |
| Luke Evangelista NJD | 101 | 8 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 96 | 10 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler NJD | 61 | 10 | |
| Brett Pesce NJD | 60 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats