Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists30 × 1+30
- PP points14 × 0.5+7
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots201 × 0.1+20.1
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1589 × 0.01+15.9
- total134 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242134 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 134 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for BUF.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −4.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.3% shooting on 43 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.6% (64 shots before this season) — that's 2.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.4%, worth PD −4.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 36.4% |
| 2025-26 | Sabres | 60 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 11 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 13:58 | 1 | 0 | 60 | 18.3% | 31.5% |
| 2026-27 | Sabres | 19 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 18:52 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 9.3% | 36.4% |
| 84-G proj | Sabres | 84 | 19 | 30 | 49 | — | 34 | — | 9 | — | 17:25 | — | — | 174 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 19:32 | EV | Assist | Zucker (Ostlund, Quinn) → 2-4 | Zucker · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kozak · Ostlund Samuelsson · Power | Girgensons · Holmberg · Mikheyev McDonagh · Carlson · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P2 10:53 | EV | Assist | Doan (Ostlund, Quinn) → 5-1 | Thompson · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund · Benson Dahlin · Zellweger · Metsa | Coyle · Monahan · Nichushkin · Olivier · Johnson Werenski · Fabbro · Christiansen · Mateychuk Greaves (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ ANA | |||||
| P1 11:39 | PP | Goal | Ostlund (Benson, Thompson) → 2-3 | Carrick · Malenstyn · Thompson · Quinn · Kozak · Ostlund · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin | Killorn · Granlund · Malott · Sennecke · Washe Jensen · LaCombe · Warren · Mitchell Husso (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 02:20 | EV | Goal | Ostlund (Power, Dahlin) → 3-3 | Benson · Quinn · McLeod · Ostlund Power · Dahlin | Strome · Kyrou · Tuch Roy · Fehérváry Lindgren (G) |
| Oct 21 · vs PHI | |||||
| P2 19:25 | PP | Assist | Zucker (Quinn, Ostlund) → 1-2 | Zucker · Norris · Krebs · Quinn · Doan · Kulich · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power | Couturier · Cates · Gaucher · Knuble · Barkey Sanheim · Benoit · Drysdale · Bonk Vladar (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Noah over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn BUF | 167 | 10 | |
| Zach Benson BUF | 92 | 10 | |
| Owen Power BUF | 79 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin BUF | 79 | 8 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson BUF | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats