Patrick Kane
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 44?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists35 × 1+35
- PP points11 × 0.5+5.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots140 × 0.1+14
- PIM78 × 0.05+3.9
- ice time (min)1515 × 0.01+15.2
- total107 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242107 = 44/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 107 points is 44 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 15:23/game over the last 6, down 21% from 19:24 earlier in the season.
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Availability: played 11 of 14 for CHI — missed 3 games (2026-11-04, 2026-11-05, 2026-11-07).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 37 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.8
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.0% shooting on 25 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.8% (2097 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.8%, worth PD −2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-08 | Blackhawks | 82 | 21 | 51 | 72 | -5 | 52 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 18:22 | 4 | 1 | 191 | 11.0% | 61.5% |
| 2008-09 | Blackhawks | 80 | 25 | 45 | 70 | -2 | 42 | 13 | 35 | 0 | 18:40 | 4 | 0 | 254 | 9.8% | 41.9% |
| 2009-10 | Blackhawks | 82 | 30 | 58 | 88 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 29 | 0 | 19:12 | 6 | 0 | 261 | 11.5% | 40.9% |
| 2010-11 | Blackhawks | 73 | 27 | 46 | 73 | 7 | 28 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 19:17 | 2 | 0 | 216 | 12.5% | 14.3% |
| 2011-12 | Blackhawks | 82 | 23 | 43 | 66 | 7 | 40 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 20:12 | 5 | 0 | 253 | 9.1% | 42.2% |
| 2012-13 | Blackhawks | 47 | 23 | 32 | 55 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 20:03 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| 2013-14 | Blackhawks | 69 | 29 | 40 | 69 | 7 | 22 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 19:37 | 6 | 0 | 227 | 12.8% | 50.0% |
| 2014-15 | Blackhawks | 61 | 27 | 37 | 64 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 19:51 | 5 | 0 | 186 | 14.5% | 42.9% |
| 2015-16 | Blackhawks | 82 | 46 | 60 | 106 | 17 | 30 | 17 | 37 | 0 | 20:25 | 9 | 1 | 287 | 16.0% | 21.6% |
| 2016-17 | Blackhawks | 82 | 34 | 55 | 89 | 11 | 32 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 21:24 | 5 | 1 | 292 | 11.6% | 13.7% |
| 2017-18 | Blackhawks | 82 | 27 | 49 | 76 | -20 | 32 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 20:11 | 4 | 2 | 285 | 9.5% | 38.9% |
| 2018-19 | Blackhawks | 81 | 44 | 66 | 110 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 22:29 | 7 | 3 | 341 | 12.9% | 20.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blackhawks | 70 | 33 | 51 | 84 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 21:20 | 2 | 1 | 275 | 12.0% | 25.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blackhawks | 56 | 15 | 51 | 66 | -7 | 14 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 22:14 | 3 | 0 | 191 | 7.9% | 28.6% |
| 2021-22 | Blackhawks | 78 | 26 | 66 | 92 | -19 | 18 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 21:49 | 2 | 0 | 287 | 9.1% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blackhawks | 54 | 16 | 29 | 45 | -23 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 19:57 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 8.8% | 100.0% |
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 19 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17:29 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 50 | 20 | 27 | 47 | -5 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 18:23 | 7 | 3 | 147 | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 72 | 21 | 38 | 59 | -16 | 12 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 17:59 | 6 | 2 | 175 | 12.0% | 38.5% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 67 | 16 | 41 | 57 | -1 | 16 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 17:42 | 4 | 0 | 169 | 9.5% | 33.3% |
| 2026-27 | Blackhawks | 16 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -15 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:01 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blackhawks | 84 | 11 | 35 | 46 | — | 62 | — | 15 | — | 16:46 | — | — | 143 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 37 that is -8%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Elias Pettersson (2025-25) · Vincent Trocheck (2025-25) · Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2025-25) · Luke Evangelista (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 9 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @ BOS | Assist | 06:04 · P1 · PP | Frondell (Kane, Bedard) → 1-0 | Frondell · Bertuzzi · Kantserov · Kane · Bedard | Lindholm · Khusnutdinov Lindholm · McAvoy DiPietro (G) |
| Oct 27 | vs LAK | Assist | 07:17 · P3 · EV | Kaiser (Nazar, Kane) → 2-1 | Moore · Kane · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov | Kempe · Panarin · Byfield Ceci · Gustafsson Forsberg (G) |
| Oct 25 | vs FLA | Assist | 11:15 · P2 · EV | Kantserov (Kane, Bedard) → 2-2 | Kantserov · Kane · Bedard Rinzel · Korchinski | Tkachuk · Bennett · Tkachuk Ekblad · Forsling Schmid (G) |
| Oct 23 | vs MTL | Assist | 04:23 · P1 · EV | Bedard (Kane) → 1-0 | Kantserov · Kane · Bedard Kaiser · Levshunov | Caufield · Slafkovský · Kapanen Matheson · Carrier Fowler (G) |
| Oct 15 | vs WPG | Assist | 08:11 · P1 · PP | Bedard (Kane, Bertuzzi) → 1-0 | Greene · Bertuzzi · Kantserov · Teravainen · Kane · Bedard | Barron Pionk · Samberg Skinner (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Patrick over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kantserov CHI | 108 | 10 | |
| Artyom Levshunov CHI | 76 | 10 | |
| Frank Nazar CHI | 75 | 8 | |
| Connor Bedard CHI | 70 | 6 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser CHI | 53 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats