Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists20 × 1+20
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots103 × 0.1+10.3
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1142 × 0.01+11.4
- total102 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242102 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 102 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.6
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 22.7% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.2% (722 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.9 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.8%, worth PD +2.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Broberg 10.3%, Parayko 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Blackhawks | 55 | 14 | 13 | 27 | -5 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:20 | 3 | 1 | 112 | 12.5% | 42.6% |
| 2021-22 | Red Wings | 82 | 15 | 21 | 36 | -11 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16:55 | 3 | 0 | 166 | 9.0% | 49.3% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 79 | 14 | 10 | 24 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:04 | 1 | 0 | 106 | 13.2% | 46.8% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 67 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15:30 | 3 | 0 | 105 | 13.3% | 49.3% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 81 | 25 | 21 | 46 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 17:21 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 18.1% | 42.6% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 64 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 13 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 15:54 | 2 | 0 | 95 | 13.7% | 48.4% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:36 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22.7% | 48.8% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 20 | 20 | 39 | — | 18 | — | 3 | — | 14:14 | — | — | 120 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Jack Roslovic (2025-25) · Shane Pinto (2025-25) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 00:37 | EV | Goal | Suter (Toropchenko, Carlo) → 1-1 | Buchnevich · Johnston · Toropchenko · Suter · McMichael · Dvorsky Fowler · Carlo · Broberg · Mailloux | Copp · Kolesar · Appleton · Dries · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk · Seider · Wallinder Gibson (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ NYR | |||||
| P3 19:01 | EV | Goal | Suter (Toropchenko, Lindstein) → 1-3 | Johnston · Toropchenko · Suter · Berggren · Neighbours · Dvorsky Carlo · Barron · Lindstein · Jiricek | Zibanejad · Bjorkstrand · Dorofeyev · Lafrenière · Rempe · Laba Pettersson · Schneider · Morrow · Smits Garand (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | |||||
| P3 13:15 | EV | Assist | Kaskimaki (Toropchenko, Suter) → 5-4 | Buchnevich · Toropchenko · Suter · Neighbours · Kaskimaki · Dvorsky Fowler · Broberg · Barron · Jiricek | Copp · Compher · Kolesar · Rasmussen · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Faulk · Englund · Wallinder · Johansson Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Pius over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexey Toropchenko STL | 70 | 7 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 59 | 10 | |
| Brandon Carlo STL | 52 | 10 | |
| Colton Parayko STL | 52 | 8 | |
| Cam Fowler STL | 42 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats