Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 80?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists33 × 1+33
- PP points28 × 0.5+14
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots182 × 0.1+18.2
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)2066 × 0.01+20.7
- total133 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166133 = 80/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 133 points is 80 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.8 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 11.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 10.3% shooting on 39 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.2% (262 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.8%, worth PD +2.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Thomas 12.5%, Snuggerud 23.8%, Neighbours 14.8%, McTavish 14.6%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Oilers | 23 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 46 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 68 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 21 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:30 | 2 | 1 | 97 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 81 | 6 | 28 | 34 | 14 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 23:21 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 24:52 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 14 | 33 | 47 | — | 24 | — | 14 | — | 22:23 | — | — | 148 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Sean Durzi (2025-25) · Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Thomas Harley (2025-25) · Jackson LaCombe (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ NSH | |||||
| P1 13:07 | PP | Assist | #? (Broberg, Thomas) → 1-0 | Thomas · Neighbours · McTavish Broberg | Drury · Schaefer Skjei · Perbix Saros (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P2 16:04 | PP | Assist | #? (McTavish, Broberg) → 1-2 | Neighbours · McTavish · Snuggerud Broberg | Rodrigues · Hischier Pesce · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| P3 14:36 | EV | Goal | #? (Neighbours, Jiricek) → 3-4 | Neighbours · McTavish · Kaskimaki Jiricek | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | |||||
| P2 19:32 | EV | Assist | #? (Thomas, Broberg) → 2-3 | Thomas · Holloway Carlo · Broberg | Compher · Rasmussen · Danielson Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs BOS | |||||
| P1 15:43 | PP | Assist | Snuggerud (Broberg, Thomas) → 1-1 | Thomas · Neighbours · McTavish · Snuggerud Broberg | Khusnutdinov · Minten Zadorov · Borgen Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Philip over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas STL | 113 | 10 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL | 97 | 10 | |
| Jake Neighbours STL | 84 | 10 | |
| Mason McTavish STL | 78 | 10 | |
| Brandon Carlo STL | 72 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats