Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 61?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals14 × 0.5+7
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots224 × 0.1+22.4
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1355 × 0.01+13.6
- total147 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242147 = 61/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 147 points is 61 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.6% shooting on 48 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.5% (629 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.4%, worth PD +2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Ducks | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:05 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Ducks | 80 | 17 | 26 | 43 | -19 | 44 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 15:22 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 10.6% | 42.3% |
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 64 | 19 | 23 | 42 | -23 | 86 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 16:17 | 3 | 1 | 130 | 14.6% | 51.7% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 76 | 22 | 30 | 52 | 0 | 38 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 16:53 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 12.2% | 50.7% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 75 | 17 | 24 | 41 | -15 | 42 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 15:19 | 3 | 0 | 146 | 11.6% | 48.6% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:12 | 3 | 0 | 52 | 13.5% | 54.2% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 25 | 23 | 48 | — | 34 | — | 11 | — | 15:45 | — | — | 183 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Josh Norris (2025-25) · Egor Chinakhov (2025-25) · Patric Hornqvist (2021-21) · Dylan Holloway (2025-25) · Valeri Nichushkin (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P3 11:46 | EV | Goal | #? (Barron, Parayko) → 2-4 | Neighbours · Kaskimaki Parayko · Barron | Brown · Mantha · Glass Pesce · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| P2 16:04 | PP | Assist | #? (McTavish, Broberg) → 1-2 | Neighbours · McTavish · Snuggerud Broberg | Rodrigues · Hischier Pesce · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs VGK | |||||
| P2 08:30 | EV | Goal | McTavish (Jiricek, Barron) → 3-1 | Berggren · McMichael · McTavish Jiricek · Barron | Holtz · Howden · Karlsson Hanifin · Coghlan Hill (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mason over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonatan Berggren STL | 85 | 8 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 78 | 10 | |
| Connor McMichael STL | 69 | 10 | |
| Jake Neighbours STL | 58 | 10 | |
| Cam Fowler STL | 53 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats