Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 52?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists26 × 1+26
- PP points19 × 0.5+9.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots126 × 0.1+12.6
- PIM93 × 0.05+4.7
- ice time (min)1300 × 0.01+13
- total126 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242126 = 52/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 126 points is 52 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.8% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 16.2% (414 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.8%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Blues | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:19 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12.5% | 33.3% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 43 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -19 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:26 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 11.3% | 36.8% |
| 2023-24 | Blues | 77 | 27 | 11 | 38 | -16 | 21 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 15:42 | 4 | 0 | 145 | 18.6% | 37.9% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 82 | 22 | 24 | 46 | 0 | 56 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 15:54 | 3 | 1 | 122 | 18.0% | 27.8% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 69 | 15 | 21 | 36 | -7 | 43 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 15:14 | 2 | 0 | 86 | 17.4% | 25.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 15:37 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 20 | 26 | 46 | — | 72 | — | 12 | — | 15:21 | — | — | 134 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Shane Pinto (2025-25) · Jonatan Berggren (2025-25) · Andrei Kuzmenko (2025-25) · Frank Nazar (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P3 14:36 | EV | Assist | #? (Neighbours, Jiricek) → 3-4 | Neighbours · McTavish · Kaskimaki Jiricek | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | |||||
| P3 08:37 | EV | Assist | #? (Neighbours) → 3-4 | Neighbours · Dvorsky Carlo · Broberg | Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Finnie Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs BOS | |||||
| P3 12:42 | PP | Goal | Neighbours (Broberg, Thomas) → 4-1 | Thomas · Neighbours · McTavish · Snuggerud Broberg | Zacha · Khusnutdinov Zadorov · Borgen Swayman (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs VGK | |||||
| P3 16:05 | PP | Assist | Holloway (Neighbours, Snuggerud) → 6-2 | Thomas · Snuggerud · Neighbours · Holloway Broberg | Dowd · Karlsson McNabb · Theodore Hill (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs WPG | |||||
| P3 08:47 | PP | Assist | Broberg (Thomas, Neighbours) → 2-1 | Thomas · Holloway · Neighbours · Snuggerud Broberg | Barron · Koepke DeMelo · Ferraro Skinner (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jake over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Broberg STL | 84 | 10 | |
| Robert Thomas STL | 62 | 10 | |
| Mason McTavish STL | 58 | 10 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL | 57 | 10 | |
| Brandon Carlo STL | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats