Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 58?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists45 × 1+45
- PP points23 × 0.5+11.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots112 × 0.1+11.2
- PIM47 × 0.05+2.4
- ice time (min)1719 × 0.01+17.2
- total141 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242141 = 58/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 141 points is 58 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.0 SOG/game lately vs 0.9 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 13.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 7.5/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.6% (827 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.7%, worth PD −1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Blues | 70 | 9 | 24 | 33 | -2 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13:04 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 11.3% | 44.1% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 66 | 10 | 32 | 42 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 14:34 | 2 | 0 | 87 | 11.5% | 42.9% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 33 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 13.6% | 42.6% |
| 2021-22 | Blues | 72 | 20 | 57 | 77 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 18:46 | 6 | 1 | 115 | 17.4% | 49.9% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 73 | 18 | 47 | 65 | -8 | 22 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 19:21 | 2 | 1 | 106 | 17.0% | 52.9% |
| 2023-24 | Blues | 82 | 26 | 60 | 86 | 9 | 48 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 20:58 | 3 | 0 | 170 | 15.3% | 53.1% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 70 | 21 | 60 | 81 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 19:57 | 5 | 1 | 145 | 14.5% | 54.8% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 64 | 25 | 39 | 64 | 22 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 19:01 | 4 | 2 | 102 | 24.5% | 52.5% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 20:32 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 12.5% | 51.3% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 18 | 45 | 63 | — | 45 | — | 18 | — | 18:21 | — | — | 131 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Patrick Kane (2025-25) · J.T. Miller (2025-25) · Dylan Strome (2025-25) · Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 02:34 | EV | Assist | Barron (Thomas, Snuggerud) → 2-1 | Thomas · Holloway · Snuggerud Parayko · Barron | Compher · DeBrincat · Finnie Chiarot · Faulk Gibson (G) |
| P3 15:58 | EV | Assist | Snuggerud (Holloway, #?) → 3-1 | Holloway · McTavish · Snuggerud Fowler · Carlo | Compher · Arvidsson · Rasmussen Seider · Johansson Gibson (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ NSH | |||||
| P1 13:07 | PP | Assist | #? (Broberg, Thomas) → 1-0 | Thomas · Neighbours · McTavish Broberg | Drury · Schaefer Skjei · Perbix Saros (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P2 16:04 | PP | Goal | #? (McTavish, Broberg) → 1-2 | Neighbours · McTavish · Snuggerud Broberg | Rodrigues · Hischier Pesce · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | |||||
| P2 19:32 | EV | Assist | #? (Thomas, Broberg) → 2-3 | Thomas · Holloway Carlo · Broberg | Compher · Rasmussen · Danielson Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Robert over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL | 171 | 10 | |
| Dylan Holloway STL | 123 | 10 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 113 | 10 | |
| Cam Fowler STL | 69 | 10 | |
| Jake Neighbours STL | 62 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats