Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists40 × 1+40
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots215 × 0.1+21.5
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1484 × 0.01+14.8
- total132 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242132 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 132 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −6.1
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 6.5% shooting on 46 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.1% (440 shots before this season) — that's 3.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.0 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.2%, worth PD −6.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 51 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 6.8% | 35.5% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 38 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:22 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 10.7% | 57.4% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 77 | 26 | 37 | 63 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 16:49 | 8 | 1 | 178 | 14.6% | 42.7% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 59 | 22 | 29 | 51 | 13 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 18:15 | 2 | 1 | 162 | 13.6% | 48.4% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:48 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 17 | 40 | 57 | — | 18 | — | 9 | — | 16:40 | — | — | 180 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Will Smith (2025-25) · Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25) · Matvei Michkov (2025-25) · Connor Bedard (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 15:58 | EV | Assist | Snuggerud (Holloway, #?) → 3-1 | Holloway · McTavish · Snuggerud Fowler · Carlo | Compher · Arvidsson · Rasmussen Seider · Johansson Gibson (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | |||||
| P1 02:29 | EV | Assist | #? (Barron, Holloway) → 1-0 | Holloway · Kaskimaki Carlo · Barron | Compher · Rasmussen · Danielson Englund · Johansson Gibson (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs BOS | |||||
| P2 05:17 | EV | Assist | Broberg (McMichael, Holloway) → 2-1 | McMichael · Holloway · Dvorsky Carlo · Broberg | Mittelstadt · Kastelic · Poitras Clifton · Lohrei Swayman (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs VGK | |||||
| P3 08:21 | EV | Assist | Snuggerud (Holloway, Barron) → 4-2 | Thomas · Snuggerud · Neighbours · Holloway Carlo · Barron | Eichel · Barbashev · Stone Andersson · Hanifin Hill (G) |
| P3 10:29 | EV | Goal | Holloway (Thomas, Barron) → 5-2 | Thomas · Snuggerud · Holloway Jiricek · Barron | Gatcomb · Dowd · Lavoie Andersson · Lauzon Hill (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dylan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas STL | 123 | 10 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL | 120 | 10 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 72 | 10 | |
| Cam Fowler STL | 65 | 10 | |
| Justin Barron STL | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats