Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists30 × 1+30
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots134 × 0.1+13.4
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)1401 × 0.01+14
- total94 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16694 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 94 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.6% (230 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.0%, worth PD +1.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 39 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16:18 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 48 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:38 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 45 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -14 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:27 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 52 | 0 | 9 | 9 | -1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 16 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 12 | 30 | 42 | — | 27 | — | 0 | — | 17:45 | — | — | 118 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Sam Malinski (2025-25) · Brandt Clarke (2025-25) · Sean Durzi (2025-25) · Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Ty Smith (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 02:34 | EV | Goal | Barron (Thomas, Snuggerud) → 2-1 | Thomas · Holloway · Snuggerud Parayko · Barron | Compher · DeBrincat · Finnie Chiarot · Faulk Gibson (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P3 11:46 | EV | Assist | #? (Barron, Parayko) → 2-4 | Neighbours · Kaskimaki Parayko · Barron | Brown · Mantha · Glass Pesce · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | |||||
| P1 02:29 | EV | Assist | #? (Barron, Holloway) → 1-0 | Holloway · Kaskimaki Carlo · Barron | Compher · Rasmussen · Danielson Englund · Johansson Gibson (G) |
| P3 12:57 | EV | Goal | #? (Snuggerud) → 4-4 | Thomas · Holloway · Snuggerud Broberg | Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Finnie Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs BOS | |||||
| P2 12:08 | EV | Assist | Thomas (Barron) → 3-1 | Thomas · Neighbours · Snuggerud Barron · Jiricek | Zacha · Geekie · Poitras Zadorov · Borgen Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Justin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Parayko STL | 59 | 8 | |
| Dylan Holloway STL | 55 | 10 | |
| Robert Thomas STL | 50 | 10 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL | 48 | 10 | |
| Pius Suter STL | 42 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats