Ross Colton
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1110 × 0.01+11.1
- total102 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242102 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 102 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.3/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for NSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.1% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.7% (782 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.2%, worth PD +2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 30 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 4 | 0 | 46 | 19.6% | 48.6% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 79 | 22 | 17 | 39 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 12:48 | 4 | 0 | 159 | 13.8% | 52.2% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 81 | 16 | 16 | 32 | -8 | 50 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 12:21 | 3 | 0 | 153 | 10.5% | 56.1% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 80 | 17 | 23 | 40 | -8 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13:43 | 2 | 0 | 146 | 11.6% | 51.6% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 61 | 16 | 13 | 29 | -1 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 14:25 | 3 | 0 | 125 | 12.8% | 40.2% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 73 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 2 | 0 | 153 | 5.9% | 47.2% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 19 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 16.1% | 100.0% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 19 | 17 | 37 | — | 28 | — | 0 | — | 13:58 | — | — | 137 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Kirby Dach (2025-25) · Mark Jankowski (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 09:02 | EV | Goal | Colton (Drury, #?) → 2-1 | Colton · Drury · Edstrom Struble · Hunt | Buchnevich · McMichael · Neighbours · McTavish · Kaskimaki · Dvorsky Fowler · Parayko · Barron · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ COL | |||||
| P1 04:01 | EV | Goal | Colton (O'Reilly) → 1-0 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Colton · Edstrom · Bourque Josi · Skjei · Wilsby | Kadri · Landeskog · Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Roy · Necas Burns · Toews · Juulsen · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs CAR | |||||
| P3 05:40 | EV | Assist | Edstrom (Josi, Colton) → 3-1 | Colton · Drury · Edstrom Josi · Skjei · Perbix · Wilsby | Deslauriers · Ehlers · Robinson · Kotkaniemi · Stankoven · Blake Gostisbehere · Slavin · Chatfield · Valimaki Kochetkov (G) |
| P3 19:19 | EV | Goal | Colton (Skjei, Drury) → 4-1 | Kerfoot · Colton · Drury · Edstrom · Schaefer · Pinchuk Skjei · Perbix · Struble · Hunt | Deslauriers · Jankowski · Aho · Robinson · Kotkaniemi · Jarvis · Stankoven Gostisbehere · Slavin · Valimaki · Walker Kochetkov (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs WSH | |||||
| P3 06:34 | EV | Goal | Colton (Edstrom, Josi) → 3-3 | Forsberg · Kerfoot · Colton · Drury · Hoglander · Edstrom Josi · Struble · Hunt · Wilsby | Ovechkin · Jenner · Wilson · Strome · Protas · Sourdif Roy · Chychrun · Liljegren · Fehervary Lindgren (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ross over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Drury NSH | 89 | 10 | |
| Adam Edstrom NSH | 83 | 10 | |
| Brady Skjei NSH | 52 | 10 | |
| Adam Wilsby NSH | 51 | 10 | |
| Roman Josi NSH | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats