Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots75 × 0.1+7.5
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1230 × 0.01+12.3
- total72 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24272 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 72 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.4% (110 shots before this season) — that's 0.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.4%, worth PD +0.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 81 | 12 | 17 | 29 | -14 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16:45 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 11.0% | 42.7% |
| 2026-27 | Blackhawks | 19 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 11.1% | 42.7% |
| 84-G proj | Blackhawks | 84 | 12 | 15 | 26 | — | 29 | — | 3 | — | 14:51 | — | — | 108 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · @ BOS | |||||
| P3 09:38 | EV | Goal | Greene (Mangiapane) → 3-2 | Donato · Mangiapane · Greene · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Levshunov | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Mittelstadt · Hagens Lindholm · Borgen · McAvoy · Lohrei DiPietro (G) |
| Oct 25 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 02:34 | EV | Goal | Greene (Mangiapane, Korchinski) → 1-0 | Greene · Smith · Mangiapane Rinzel · Korchinski | Imama · Hathaway · Schwindt Gudas · Kulikov Schmid (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ryan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Smith CHI | 73 | 10 | |
| Jordan Greenway CHI | 51 | 8 | |
| Alex Vlasic CHI | 48 | 10 | |
| Ian Cole CHI | 47 | 10 | |
| Artyom Levshunov CHI | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats