Ryan Leonard
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 62?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists32 × 1+32
- PP points11 × 0.5+5.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots221 × 0.1+22.1
- PIM53 × 0.05+2.7
- ice time (min)1186 × 0.01+11.9
- total149 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242149 = 62/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 149 points is 62 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.9% shooting on 42 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (170 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.5%, worth PD −0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9% | 100.0% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 75 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 2 | 47 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 14:25 | 3 | 0 | 153 | 13.1% | 54.5% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14:12 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 13.0% | 100.0% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 25 | 32 | 56 | — | 48 | — | 13 | — | 14:34 | — | — | 176 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ NJD | |||||
| P1 14:10 | PP | Goal | Leonard (Hutson) → 1-1 | Jenner · Tuch · Dubois · Protas · Sourdif · Leonard · Protas Roy · Fehervary · Hutson | Rodrigues · Bratt · Hischier · Hughes · Gritsyuk Dillon · Siegenthaler · Kolyachonok · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs FLA | |||||
| P2 14:55 | EV | Assist | Protas (Dubois, Leonard) → 3-2 | Jenner · Beauvillier · Dubois · Protas · Sourdif · Leonard Liljegren · Fehervary · Ivany · Hutson | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Bennett · Imama · Tkachuk Jones · Ekblad · Forsling · Mikkola Schmid (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs DAL | |||||
| P2 16:58 | EV | Assist | Jenner (Leonard, #?) → 2-5 | Ovechkin · Jenner · Beauvillier · Sourdif · Leonard Roy · Chychrun | Seguin · Hintz · Steel · Robertson · Hryckowian · Hyry Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| P3 18:58 | EV | Goal | Leonard (Kyrou, Chychrun) → 5-6 | Jenner · Wilson · Tuch · Strome · Kyrou · Dubois · Sourdif · Leonard · Protas Chychrun | Hintz · Robertson · Hyry Myers · Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs LAK | |||||
| P1 09:25 | EV | Goal | Leonard (Brodzinski, Beauvillier) → 1-0 | Ovechkin · Brodzinski · Beauvillier · Miroshnichenko · Leonard · Protas Roy · Chychrun | Perry · Haula · Armia · Laughton · Lee · Helenius Dumoulin · Gustafsson · Anderson · Clarke Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ryan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 61 | 10 | |
| Cole Hutson WSH | 60 | 10 | |
| Boone Jenner WSH | 50 | 10 | |
| Dylan Strome WSH | 44 | 10 | |
| Martin Fehervary WSH | 34 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats