Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 33?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots95 × 0.1+9.5
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1369 × 0.01+13.7
- total80 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24280 = 33/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 80 points is 33 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 14:27/game over the last 6, down 15% from 16:56 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CBJ.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.6% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.3% (1273 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.5%, worth PD −1.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Flames | 75 | 22 | 12 | 34 | -20 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 15:59 | 2 | 1 | 140 | 15.7% | 46.0% |
| 2014-15 | Flames | 81 | 31 | 31 | 62 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 19:37 | 8 | 3 | 191 | 16.2% | 49.3% |
| 2015-16 | Flames | 81 | 27 | 36 | 63 | -6 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 19:10 | 5 | 1 | 197 | 13.7% | 51.0% |
| 2016-17 | Flames | 82 | 27 | 31 | 58 | -1 | 20 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 17:35 | 4 | 2 | 199 | 13.6% | 51.4% |
| 2017-18 | Flames | 74 | 31 | 33 | 64 | 3 | 24 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 18:41 | 11 | 3 | 202 | 15.3% | 50.4% |
| 2018-19 | Flames | 78 | 34 | 48 | 82 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 23 | 0 | 19:03 | 5 | 0 | 211 | 16.1% | 51.1% |
| 2019-20 | Flames | 70 | 22 | 26 | 48 | -16 | 25 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 18:06 | 5 | 1 | 166 | 13.3% | 52.6% |
| 2020-21 | Flames | 50 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -6 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 17:41 | 5 | 0 | 98 | 10.2% | 49.0% |
| 2021-22 | Flames | 65 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -15 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 14:04 | 2 | 0 | 111 | 7.2% | 53.1% |
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 25 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -5 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17:22 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 10.9% | 55.1% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 49 | 13 | 22 | 35 | -10 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 18:27 | 3 | 0 | 104 | 12.5% | 55.0% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 34 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 17:34 | 2 | 0 | 67 | 19.4% | 54.7% |
| 2024-25 | Blue Jackets | 54 | 19 | 38 | 57 | 19 | 20 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 19:01 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 14.8% | 52.6% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 78 | 13 | 23 | 36 | -1 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 17:07 | 3 | 0 | 131 | 9.9% | 52.3% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 17 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:56 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5.6% | 53.5% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 10 | 23 | 33 | — | 31 | — | 8 | — | 15:49 | — | — | 120 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Andrew Copp (2025-25) · Sean Couturier (2025-25) · Christian Dvorak (2025-25) · Alexander Wennberg (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 12:20 | PP | Assist | #? (Johnson, Monahan) → 1-1 | Coyle · Monahan · Johnson Werenski | Guentzel · Hagel McDonagh · Crozier Hildeby (G) |
| Nov 6 · @ BUF | |||||
| P1 16:00 | EV | Assist | #? (Monahan, Mateychuk) → 1-1 | Monahan · Knies Provorov · Mateychuk | Carrick · Malenstyn · Kozak Zellweger · Metsa Luukkonen (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs COL | |||||
| P2 12:42 | EV | Assist | #? (Monahan, Mateychuk) → 6-1 | Monahan · Garland Provorov · Mateychuk | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Juulsen · Makar Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ CAR | |||||
| P3 06:56 | EV | Assist | Mateychuk (Christiansen, Monahan) → 1-3 | Monahan · Sillinger Christiansen · Mateychuk | Jarvis · Stankoven Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Sean over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin CBJ | 79 | 10 | |
| Denton Mateychuk CBJ | 70 | 10 | |
| Conor Garland CBJ | 62 | 8 | |
| Zach Werenski CBJ | 51 | 10 | |
| Damon Severson CBJ | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats