Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 99?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists60 × 1+60
- PP points57 × 0.5+28.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots199 × 0.1+19.9
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)2082 × 0.01+20.8
- total165 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166165 = 99/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 165 points is 99 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.8 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for FLA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.7% shooting on 45 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.5% (1710 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.0%, worth PD +1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Predators | 77 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -23 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 19:37 | 2 | 1 | 100 | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Predators | 82 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 19:53 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Predators | 40 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -5 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 19:39 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Blue Jackets | 41 | 2 | 18 | 20 | -9 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 24:27 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Blue Jackets | 75 | 12 | 30 | 42 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 23:24 | 3 | 3 | 152 | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Blue Jackets | 78 | 16 | 41 | 57 | 10 | 30 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 24:36 | 4 | 1 | 249 | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 75 | 9 | 37 | 46 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 25:49 | 4 | 3 | 184 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 56 | 6 | 24 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 25:17 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 56 | 5 | 23 | 28 | -18 | 26 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 25:14 | 1 | 1 | 141 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blackhawks | 78 | 5 | 46 | 51 | -37 | 28 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 26:13 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blackhawks | 72 | 12 | 25 | 37 | -38 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 24:27 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blackhawks | 67 | 8 | 23 | 31 | -15 | 34 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 25:29 | 4 | 2 | 172 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 42 | 7 | 20 | 27 | -18 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 24:30 | 2 | 0 | 81 | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 21 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 24:55 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 52 | 7 | 25 | 32 | -3 | 18 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 23:42 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 20 | 3 | 19 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 24:40 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 11 | 60 | 71 | — | 23 | — | 31 | — | 22:34 | — | — | 159 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Adam Fox (2025-25) · Victor Hedman (2025-25) · Roman Josi (2025-25) · Rasmus Dahlin (2025-25) · Erik Karlsson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs DET | |||||
| P1 03:52 | EV | Assist | Reinhart (Verhaeghe, Jones) → 1-0 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Luostarinen · Lundell · Vilmanis Kulikov · Gudas · Jones · Mikkola | Compher · Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Mazur · Kasper · Finnie Englund · Seider · Wallinder · Johansson Gibson (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P2 02:00 | PP | Assist | Bennett (Lundell, #?) → 1-0 | Bennett · Tkachuk · Luostarinen · Lundell · Devine Ekblad · Forsling | Monahan · Nichushkin · Voronkov · Fantilli Gudbranson · Severson · Werenski · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ WSH | |||||
| P1 10:00 | PP | Assist | Tkachuk (Tkachuk, Jones) → 2-1 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Bennett · Tkachuk · Luostarinen · Tkachuk Jones · Ekblad · Balinskis | Jenner · Tuch · Protas · Sourdif Roy · Chychrun · Liljegren · Fehervary Thompson (G) |
| Nov 4 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 13:20 | EV | Goal | Jones (Vilmanis, Reinhart) → 3-0 | Verhaeghe · Hathaway · Reinhart · Imama · Schwindt · Vilmanis Kulikov · Jones · Mikkola · Balinskis | Teravainen · Greenway · Smith · Greene · Frondell · Boucher Cole · Vlasic · Kaiser · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 18:15 | PP | Assist | Reinhart (Verhaeghe, Jones) → 1-0 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk · Luostarinen · Tkachuk · Lundell Jones · Ekblad · Forsling | Lowry · Connor · Iafallo · Mercer · Björck Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk · Bauer Daws (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Seth over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Mikkola FLA | 169 | 10 | |
| Sam Reinhart FLA | 94 | 10 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk FLA | 89 | 10 | |
| Brady Tkachuk FLA | 85 | 10 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe FLA | 84 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats