Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 44?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots152 × 0.1+15.2
- PIM236 × 0.05+11.8
- ice time (min)1477 × 0.01+14.8
- total106 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242106 = 44/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 106 points is 44 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.3 SOG/game lately vs 2.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −4.4
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 6.9% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.7% (1285 shots before this season) — that's 2.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.6 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.8%, worth PD −4.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Capitals | 82 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 151 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7:56 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Capitals | 67 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -1 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 5.1% | 18.2% |
| 2015-16 | Capitals | 82 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 3 | 163 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:55 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 7.1% | 57.1% |
| 2016-17 | Capitals | 82 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 7.4% | 30.0% |
| 2017-18 | Capitals | 78 | 14 | 21 | 35 | 10 | 187 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15:59 | 1 | 0 | 123 | 11.4% | 46.3% |
| 2018-19 | Capitals | 63 | 22 | 18 | 40 | 11 | 128 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18:09 | 2 | 0 | 130 | 16.9% | 54.7% |
| 2019-20 | Capitals | 68 | 21 | 23 | 44 | -3 | 93 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 18:16 | 5 | 1 | 154 | 13.6% | 31.6% |
| 2020-21 | Capitals | 47 | 13 | 20 | 33 | 1 | 96 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 16:32 | 4 | 0 | 83 | 15.7% | 42.3% |
| 2021-22 | Capitals | 78 | 24 | 28 | 52 | 13 | 98 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 18:35 | 5 | 1 | 151 | 15.9% | 42.3% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 33 | 13 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 78 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17:37 | 1 | 1 | 82 | 15.9% | 33.3% |
| 2023-24 | Capitals | 74 | 18 | 17 | 35 | -19 | 133 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 18:06 | 3 | 0 | 169 | 10.7% | 36.7% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 81 | 33 | 32 | 65 | 20 | 100 | 11 | 17 | 2 | 18:44 | 6 | 2 | 169 | 19.5% | 26.3% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 72 | 30 | 32 | 62 | 15 | 117 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 19:28 | 3 | 0 | 153 | 19.6% | 44.7% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 14 | 22 | 36 | — | 149 | — | 8 | — | 16:33 | — | — | 148 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Trevor Moore (2025-25) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Pius Suter (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 12:31 | EV | Assist | Dubois (Hutson, Wilson) → 2-2 | Jenner · Wilson · Dubois · Protas · Sourdif · Leonard Roy · Chychrun · Hutson | Giroux · Zetterlund · Cozens · Pinto · Greig · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Sanderson · Zub Ersson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tom over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 72 | 10 | |
| Aliaksei Protas WSH | 72 | 10 | |
| Martin Fehervary WSH | 67 | 10 | |
| Boone Jenner WSH | 61 | 9 | |
| Matt Roy WSH | 46 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats