Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 54?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots151 × 0.1+15.1
- PIM67 × 0.05+3.4
- ice time (min)1410 × 0.01+14.1
- total130 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242130 = 54/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 130 points is 54 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 19:50/game over the last 6, up 24% from 15:56 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 19.4% shooting on 36 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.2% (221 shots before this season) — that's 2.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.4 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.9%, worth PD +4.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Miller 10.5%, Fox 6.7%, Gavrikov 3.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 77 | 11 | 9 | 20 | -1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 10.1% | 47.1% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 63 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -14 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9:41 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 10.7% | 20.0% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 40 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -6 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 10.3% | 25.0% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 24 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 18.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:47 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 19.4% | 46.2% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 22 | 25 | 47 | — | 58 | — | 2 | — | 16:11 | — | — | 148 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Frank Nazar (2025-25) · Jonatan Berggren (2025-25) · Zachary Bolduc (2025-25) · Matt Calvert (2019-19) · Alex Newhook (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ CGY | |||||
| P3 19:53 | EV | Goal | Kartye (Miller) → 3-1 | Zibanejad · Miller · Gawdin · Tolvanen · Kartye · Chmelar Gavrikov · Fox · Robertson · Morrow | Frost · Farabee · Coronato · Othmann · Klapka · Castagna · Gridin Hanley · Middleton · Nemec · Parekh Cooley (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 09:05 | PP | Goal | Kartye (Fox, Bjorkstrand) → 2-0 | Miller · Bjorkstrand · Tolvanen · Kartye · Cuylle · Chmelar · Laba Pettersson · Fox · Schneider | Eberle · Stephenson · McMann · Beniers · Winterton Montour · Mahura · Evans · Ottavainen Daccord (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs PHI | |||||
| P3 15:21 | EV | Goal | Kartye (Fox, Bjorkstrand) → 3-2 | Zibanejad · Miller · Bjorkstrand · Kartye · Lafrenière · Perreault Pettersson · Gavrikov · Fox · Schneider | Couturier · Acciari · Tippett · Knuble · Barkey · Martone Sanheim · York · Drysdale · Bonk Woll (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 01:49 | EV | Assist | Fox (Kartye, Miller) → 1-0 | Zibanejad · Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye · Lafrenière · Perreault Fox · Morrow · Smits | Berggren · McMichael · Holloway · McTavish Fowler · Carlo · Broberg · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs LAK | |||||
| P1 13:01 | EV | Assist | Miller (Kartye) → 1-2 | Miller · Kartye · Bjorkstrand Durzi · Smits · Pettersson | Moore · Ward · Byfield Dumoulin · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tye over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller NYR | 150 | 10 | |
| Adam Fox NYR | 81 | 10 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | 72 | 10 | |
| Marcus Pettersson NYR | 63 | 10 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev NYR | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats