Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM56 × 0.05+2.8
- ice time (min)1451 × 0.01+14.5
- total88 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24288 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 88 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.8% (1085 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.0%, worth PD −0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Red Wings | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Red Wings | 48 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:24 | 1 | 0 | 83 | 8.4% | 12.5% |
| 2018-19 | Red Wings | 73 | 21 | 26 | 47 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 16:31 | 4 | 1 | 131 | 16.0% | 33.3% |
| 2019-20 | Red Wings | 71 | 21 | 27 | 48 | -23 | 40 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 19:19 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 16.3% | 66.7% |
| 2020-21 | Red Wings | 9 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 19:37 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Red Wings | 68 | 30 | 32 | 62 | -11 | 47 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 19:52 | 5 | 0 | 180 | 16.7% | 26.1% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 29 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -12 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16:29 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 6.5% | 40.0% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 21 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:30 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 8.9% | 16.7% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 80 | 21 | 22 | 43 | 2 | 53 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 16:03 | 2 | 0 | 160 | 13.1% | 30.8% |
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 82 | 23 | 23 | 46 | -39 | 51 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 16:00 | 1 | 0 | 131 | 17.6% | 46.8% |
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 79 | 32 | 26 | 58 | -16 | 42 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 18:27 | 3 | 1 | 164 | 19.5% | 45.1% |
| 2026-27 | Blackhawks | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:14 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blackhawks | 84 | 13 | 21 | 34 | — | 51 | — | 15 | — | 16:26 | — | — | 114 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @ BOS | Assist | 03:31 · P2 · EV | Frondell (Bertuzzi, Rinzel) → 2-1 | Frondell · Mangiapane · Bertuzzi Rinzel · Mastro | Kastelic · Kuraly · Jeannot Lohrei · Aspirot DiPietro (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tyler over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kantserov CHI | 91 | 10 | |
| Connor Bedard CHI | 83 | 9 | |
| Anton Frondell CHI | 81 | 10 | |
| Alex Vlasic CHI | 63 | 10 | |
| Ian Cole CHI | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats