Valeri Nichushkin
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 44?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists32 × 1+32
- PP points11 × 0.5+5.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots121 × 0.1+12.1
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)1416 × 0.01+14.2
- total106 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242106 = 44/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 106 points is 44 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CBJ.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.7% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.6% (1050 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.5%, worth PD −1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Stars | 79 | 14 | 20 | 34 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14:58 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Stars | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Stars | 79 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:56 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Stars | 57 | 0 | 10 | 10 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2019-20 | Avalanche | 65 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 26 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14:04 | 3 | 0 | 113 | 11.5% | 40.0% |
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 55 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14:05 | 4 | 1 | 98 | 10.2% | 33.3% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 62 | 25 | 27 | 52 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 19:02 | 5 | 0 | 180 | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 53 | 17 | 30 | 47 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 20:16 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 54 | 28 | 25 | 53 | 5 | 22 | 16 | 21 | 0 | 21:21 | 6 | 2 | 158 | 17.7% | 28.6% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 43 | 21 | 13 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 19:44 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 17.8% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 72 | 17 | 32 | 49 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 17:44 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 10.6% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 17 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:03 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 8.7% | 25.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 14 | 32 | 46 | — | 25 | — | 6 | — | 16:08 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24) · Trevor Zegras (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs FLA | |||||
| P2 19:41 | EV | Assist | #? (Voronkov, Nichushkin) → 1-2 | Nichushkin · Voronkov · Fantilli Mateychuk | Luostarinen · Lundell · Devine Kulikov · Gudas Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 07:37 | PP | Assist | #? (Garland, Nichushkin) → 2-0 | Monahan · Nichushkin · Garland Mateychuk | Nelson · Lehkonen Burns · Kulak Wedgewood (G) |
| P2 12:42 | EV | Goal | #? (Monahan, Mateychuk) → 6-1 | Monahan · Garland Provorov · Mateychuk | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Juulsen · Makar Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 12:54 | EV | Assist | Johnson (Werenski, Nichushkin) → 2-0 | Fantilli · Nichushkin · Johnson Werenski · Severson | Dvorak · Zegras · Knuble Sanheim · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs VGK | |||||
| P1 11:51 | EV | Assist | Mateychuk (Johnson, Nichushkin) → 1-0 | Fantilli · Nichushkin · Johnson Mateychuk · Severson | Holtz · Howden · Karlsson Andersson · Lauzon Hart (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Valeri over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan CBJ | 79 | 10 | |
| Denton Mateychuk CBJ | 77 | 10 | |
| Zach Werenski CBJ | 63 | 10 | |
| Adam Fantilli CBJ | 63 | 10 | |
| Conor Garland CBJ | 58 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats