Vladislav Gavrikov
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots126 × 0.1+12.6
- PIM42 × 0.05+2.1
- ice time (min)1811 × 0.01+18.1
- total70 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16670 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 70 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 3.3% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.4% (671 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.4%, worth PD −1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 69 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 1 | 0 | 81 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 55 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -13 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blue Jackets | 80 | 5 | 28 | 33 | -3 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blue Jackets | 52 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -8 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 20 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:01 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 77 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 1 | 1 | 114 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Kings | 82 | 5 | 25 | 30 | 26 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 82 | 14 | 21 | 35 | -8 | 50 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 23:44 | 1 | 1 | 119 | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 5 | 22 | 27 | — | 44 | — | 4 | — | 20:37 | — | — | 117 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25) · Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Jared Spurgeon (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 05:39 | EV | Assist | Zibanejad (Gavrikov, Fox) → 1-1 | Lafrenière · Zibanejad · Perreault Fox · Gavrikov | Matthews · Cowan · Roslovic Blankenburg · Rielly Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Vladislav over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox NYR | 158 | 10 | |
| Mika Zibanejad NYR | 73 | 10 | |
| J.T. Miller NYR | 73 | 10 | |
| Tye Kartye NYR | 72 | 10 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière NYR | 66 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats