Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 74?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists57 × 1+57
- PP points39 × 0.5+19.5
- game-winning goals6 × 0.5+3
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots235 × 0.1+23.5
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1669 × 0.01+16.7
- total180 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242180 = 74/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 180 points is 74 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 13.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.7/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for DAL — missed 2 games (2026-10-13, 2026-10-14).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −9.0
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 7.1% shooting on 42 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 16.5% (986 shots before this season) — that's 3.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.9 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.6%, worth PD −9.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Stars | 82 | 24 | 17 | 41 | 6 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 15:29 | 3 | 0 | 160 | 15.0% | 43.3% |
| 2023-24 | Stars | 82 | 32 | 33 | 65 | 14 | 38 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 17:00 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 14.8% | 50.2% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 82 | 33 | 38 | 71 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 18:56 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 16.3% | 51.2% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 82 | 45 | 41 | 86 | -5 | 32 | 27 | 42 | 0 | 20:07 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 21.8% | 47.6% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 16 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19:42 | 1 | 0 | 46 | 6.5% | 52.6% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 20 | 57 | 77 | — | 20 | — | 43 | — | 17:47 | — | — | 188 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Lucas Raymond (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Tim Stützle (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 09:16 | PP | Assist | Hintz (Johnston, Harley) → 1-1 | Hintz · Steel · Robertson · Johnston · Hyry Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley | Goodrow · Smith · Celebrini Orlov · Nurse · Kesselring · Pohlkamp Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P2 14:30 | PP | Assist | Harley (Johnston, Rantanen) → 4-2 | Benn · Perron · Rantanen · Robertson · Johnston · Hryckowian · Hyry Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley | Goodrow · Smith · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Orlov · Trouba · Nurse · Pohlkamp Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P3 06:27 | EV | Assist | Rantanen (Johnston) → 1-0 | Benn · Rantanen · Hintz · Robertson · Johnston · Hyry Lundkvist · Harley | Coyle · Lomberg · Olivier · Voronkov · Sillinger · Belluz Severson · Werenski · Provorov · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ WSH | |||||
| P2 00:23 | PP | Assist | Robertson (Johnston, Hintz) → 2-0 | Perron · Faksa · Rantanen · Hintz · Robertson · Kiviranta · Johnston Lindell · Heiskanen | Ovechkin · Jenner · Tuch · Beauvillier · Sourdif Roy · Chychrun · Fehervary · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| P2 14:50 | EV | Assist | Rantanen (Johnston, #?) → 5-1 | Perron · Faksa · Rantanen · Kiviranta · Johnston Myers · Harley | Ovechkin · Tuch · Strome · Kyrou · Dubois · Protas Chychrun · Ivany · Hutson Lindgren (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Wyatt over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen DAL | 163 | 10 | |
| Thomas Harley DAL | 71 | 10 | |
| Miro Heiskanen DAL | 67 | 7 | |
| Jason Robertson DAL | 63 | 10 | |
| Sam Steel DAL | 60 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats