Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 56?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists45 × 1+45
- PP points14 × 0.5+7
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots215 × 0.1+21.5
- PIM75 × 0.05+3.8
- ice time (min)1693 × 0.01+16.9
- total136 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242136 = 56/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 136 points is 56 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.3 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for BUF.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −6.4
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.3% shooting on 46 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.2% (334 shots before this season) — that's 3.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.2 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.2%, worth PD −6.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 71 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -3 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:31 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 11.2% | 29.4% |
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 75 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -2 | 60 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:49 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 8.3% | 19.0% |
| 2025-26 | Sabres | 65 | 13 | 30 | 43 | 27 | 42 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15:53 | 4 | 0 | 116 | 11.2% | 46.7% |
| 2026-27 | Sabres | 19 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:07 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 4.2% | 30.8% |
| 84-G proj | Sabres | 84 | 13 | 45 | 58 | — | 62 | — | 9 | — | 18:10 | — | — | 183 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Luke Evangelista (2025-25) · Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Ryan McLeod (2025-25) · Kaapo Kakko (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P2 09:46 | EV | Assist | Norris (Benson, Thompson) → 4-1 | Zucker · Thompson · Norris · Kulich · Benson Timmins · Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power | Monahan · Nichushkin · Garland · Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Severson · Werenski · Provorov Greaves (G) |
| Nov 4 · vs OTT | |||||
| P2 14:00 | EV | Assist | Krebs (Thompson, Benson) → 1-0 | Thompson · Krebs · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin | Cousins · Amadio · Zetterlund · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Matinpalo · Yakemchuk Ersson (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ LAK | |||||
| P2 15:38 | EV | Assist | Thompson (Benson, Samuelsson) → 2-0 | Thompson · Krebs · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin · Crevier · Power | Perry · Haula · Moore · Byfield · Helenius · Ward Doughty · Edmundson · Gustafsson · Clarke Forsberg (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ ANA | |||||
| P1 11:39 | PP | Assist | Ostlund (Benson, Thompson) → 2-3 | Carrick · Malenstyn · Thompson · Quinn · Kozak · Ostlund · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin | Killorn · Granlund · Malott · Sennecke · Washe Jensen · LaCombe · Warren · Mitchell Husso (G) |
| P1 15:32 | EV | Assist | Thompson (Benson, Krebs) → 3-3 | Zucker · Thompson · Norris · McLeod · Krebs · Benson Gilbert · Samuelsson · Dahlin · Crevier | Killorn · Granlund · Caulfield · Malott · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe · Hinds · Luneau · Warren Husso (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Zach over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson BUF | 127 | 10 | |
| Noah Ostlund BUF | 92 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin BUF | 91 | 8 | |
| Jack Quinn BUF | 89 | 10 | |
| Peyton Krebs BUF | 87 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats