Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 22?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists8 × 1+8
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM88 × 0.05+4.4
- ice time (min)868 × 0.01+8.7
- total54 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24254 = 22/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 54 points is 22 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 15 of 17 for SJS — missed 2 games (2026-10-29, 2026-11-07).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.3% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.2% (75 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.8%, worth PD −1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Senators | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 26.8% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 43 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:20 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5.0% | 49.1% |
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 47.7% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 59 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 9.1% | 51.6% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:20 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5.3% | 51.7% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 8 | 8 | 16 | — | 69 | — | 0 | — | 12:13 | — | — | 107 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 16:31 | SH | Goal | Ostapchuk (Goodrow) → 5-2 | Goodrow · Ostapchuk Nurse · Trouba | Stützle · Batherson · Cozens · Giroux · Halliday Sanderson |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Zack over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay Goodrow SJS | 68 | 10 | |
| Sam Dickinson SJS | 47 | 10 | |
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 42 | 10 | |
| Michael Kesselring SJS | 39 | 10 | |
| Collin Graf SJS | 39 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats