Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 35?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1158 × 0.01+11.6
- total85 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24285 = 35/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 85 points is 35 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
- Veteran card: age 41 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −4.4
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 3.8% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.5% (2212 shots before this season) — that's 2.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.8 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.3%, worth PD −4.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005-06 | Capitals | 81 | 52 | 54 | 106 | 2 | 52 | 21 | 52 | 3 | 21:37 | 5 | 2 | 425 | 12.2% | 12.5% |
| 2006-07 | Capitals | 82 | 46 | 46 | 92 | -19 | 52 | 16 | 37 | 0 | 21:23 | 8 | 1 | 392 | 11.7% | 47.1% |
| 2007-08 | Capitals | 82 | 65 | 47 | 112 | 28 | 40 | 22 | 37 | 0 | 23:06 | 11 | 2 | 446 | 14.6% | 38.9% |
| 2008-09 | Capitals | 79 | 56 | 54 | 110 | 8 | 72 | 19 | 46 | 1 | 23:00 | 10 | 2 | 528 | 10.6% | 25.0% |
| 2009-10 | Capitals | 72 | 50 | 59 | 109 | 45 | 89 | 13 | 36 | 0 | 21:48 | 7 | 0 | 368 | 13.6% | 45.5% |
| 2010-11 | Capitals | 79 | 32 | 53 | 85 | 24 | 41 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 21:22 | 11 | 3 | 367 | 8.7% | 33.3% |
| 2011-12 | Capitals | 78 | 38 | 27 | 65 | -8 | 26 | 13 | 23 | 0 | 19:48 | 3 | 2 | 303 | 12.5% | 40.0% |
| 2012-13 | Capitals | 48 | 32 | 24 | 56 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 27 | 0 | 20:53 | 4 | 0 | 220 | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Capitals | 78 | 51 | 28 | 79 | -35 | 48 | 24 | 39 | 0 | 20:33 | 10 | 3 | 386 | 13.2% | 66.7% |
| 2014-15 | Capitals | 81 | 53 | 28 | 81 | 10 | 58 | 25 | 34 | 0 | 20:20 | 11 | 0 | 395 | 13.4% | 40.0% |
| 2015-16 | Capitals | 79 | 50 | 21 | 71 | 21 | 53 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 20:19 | 8 | 2 | 398 | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Capitals | 82 | 33 | 36 | 69 | 6 | 50 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 18:22 | 7 | 2 | 313 | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Capitals | 82 | 49 | 38 | 87 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 31 | 0 | 20:09 | 7 | 3 | 355 | 13.8% | 37.5% |
| 2018-19 | Capitals | 81 | 51 | 38 | 89 | 7 | 40 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 20:55 | 5 | 0 | 338 | 15.1% | 20.0% |
| 2019-20 | Capitals | 68 | 48 | 19 | 67 | -12 | 30 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 20:40 | 3 | 1 | 311 | 15.4% | 100.0% |
| 2020-21 | Capitals | 45 | 24 | 18 | 42 | -7 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 19:30 | 6 | 1 | 182 | 13.2% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Capitals | 77 | 50 | 40 | 90 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 29 | 1 | 20:34 | 5 | 0 | 334 | 15.0% | 30.8% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 73 | 42 | 33 | 75 | -16 | 48 | 14 | 25 | 0 | 20:12 | 3 | 1 | 294 | 14.3% | 44.4% |
| 2023-24 | Capitals | 79 | 31 | 34 | 65 | -22 | 20 | 13 | 28 | 0 | 19:13 | 5 | 1 | 272 | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 65 | 44 | 29 | 73 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 17:43 | 7 | 1 | 237 | 18.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 82 | 32 | 32 | 64 | -5 | 26 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 17:27 | 5 | 0 | 244 | 13.1% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 12 | 24 | 35 | — | 19 | — | 13 | — | 14:23 | — | — | 137 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 41 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Jonathan Marchessault (2025-25) · Jordan Eberle (2025-25) · Joel Eriksson Ek (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ OTT | |||||
| P4 01:14 | EV | Assist | Hutson (Ovechkin, #?) → 3-2 | Ovechkin · Tuch Chychrun · Hutson | Zetterlund · Pinto Sanderson · Zub Ersson (G) |
| Oct 17 · vs NJD | |||||
| P2 01:16 | EV | Assist | Protas (Ovechkin, Desharnais) → 2-1 | Ovechkin · Miroshnichenko · Protas Desharnais · Fehervary | Noesen · Mantha · Rodrigues Hamilton · Siegenthaler Allen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alex over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 67 | 10 | |
| Ilya Protas WSH | 57 | 10 | |
| Cole Hutson WSH | 50 | 10 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier WSH | 46 | 9 | |
| Dylan Strome WSH | 42 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats