Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots142 × 0.1+14.2
- PIM63 × 0.05+3.2
- ice time (min)1306 × 0.01+13.1
- total94 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24294 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 94 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for LAK.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.9% (1075 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.6%, worth PD −0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Wild | 46 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:09 | 1 | 0 | 56 | 10.7% | 46.3% |
| 2014-15 | Wild | 72 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:09 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 7.6% | 45.4% |
| 2015-16 | Wild | 76 | 14 | 20 | 34 | 21 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12:44 | 2 | 0 | 99 | 14.1% | 53.3% |
| 2016-17 | Wild | 72 | 15 | 11 | 26 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:49 | 4 | 0 | 134 | 11.2% | 53.9% |
| 2017-18 | Golden Knights | 76 | 29 | 26 | 55 | -16 | 37 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 17:22 | 4 | 0 | 175 | 16.6% | 50.5% |
| 2018-19 | Golden Knights | 15 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 7.7% | 51.3% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 41 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 15:51 | 2 | 0 | 78 | 15.4% | 53.9% |
| 2019-20 | Panthers | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0% | 55.8% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 51 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16:00 | 2 | 1 | 85 | 10.6% | 55.1% |
| 2021-22 | Bruins | 78 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 19 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15:06 | 3 | 0 | 141 | 12.8% | 53.8% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 80 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 13 | 47 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 16:38 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 8.5% | 54.2% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 76 | 16 | 19 | 35 | -1 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16:53 | 2 | 0 | 155 | 10.3% | 54.8% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 69 | 11 | 10 | 21 | -6 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14:42 | 1 | 0 | 110 | 10.0% | 52.6% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 81 | 14 | 24 | 38 | -15 | 64 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 16:40 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 11.0% | 49.2% |
| 2026-27 | Kings | 17 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:38 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 11.1% | 48.8% |
| 84-G proj | Kings | 84 | 14 | 19 | 34 | — | 54 | — | 9 | — | 15:23 | — | — | 142 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 · vs SJS | |||||
| P2 11:10 | EV | Goal | #? (Connors, #?) → 4-1 | Armia · Connors Gustafsson · Clarke | Smith · Celebrini · Misa Trouba · Dickinson Askarov (G) |
| P3 02:12 | EV | Assist | #? (Haula) → 6-1 | Haula · Connors Gustafsson · Clarke | Toffoli · Bystedt · Stenberg Orlov · Pohlkamp Askarov (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs OTT | |||||
| P1 15:09 | PP | Goal | Haula (Clarke, Doughty) → 1-1 | Perry · Haula · Moore Doughty · Clarke | Amadio · Stützle Chabot · Kleven Johansson (G) |
| Oct 20 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 18:15 | EV | Assist | Laughton (Armia, Haula) → 5-2 | Haula · Armia · Laughton Doughty · Edmundson | Protas · Miroshnichenko · Leonard · Protas Hutson Thompson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Erik over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Doughty LAK | 74 | 10 | |
| Joel Armia LAK | 64 | 10 | |
| Trevor Moore LAK | 62 | 10 | |
| Brian Dumoulin LAK | 51 | 10 | |
| Joel Edmundson LAK | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats