Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots116 × 0.1+11.6
- PIM53 × 0.05+2.7
- ice time (min)1128 × 0.01+11.3
- total88 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24288 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 88 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 5.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.9/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for LAK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.6% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.7% (997 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.5%, worth PD +0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Sabres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Jets | 43 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Jets | 57 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -8 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15:08 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 9.0% | 42.9% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 79 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12:36 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 9.4% | 46.7% |
| 2018-19 | Canadiens | 57 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:48 | 2 | 0 | 134 | 9.7% | 17.2% |
| 2019-20 | Canadiens | 58 | 16 | 14 | 30 | 2 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 17:14 | 2 | 0 | 155 | 10.3% | 36.4% |
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 41 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14:42 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 9.6% | 27.3% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 60 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -15 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13:43 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 5.8% | 17.6% |
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 43 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14:57 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 10.1% | 33.3% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 66 | 17 | 8 | 25 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:33 | 3 | 0 | 139 | 12.2% | 31.3% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 81 | 11 | 18 | 29 | -2 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14:18 | 1 | 0 | 104 | 10.6% | 21.4% |
| 2025-26 | Kings | 67 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14:04 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 14.1% | 37.4% |
| 2026-27 | Kings | 17 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:22 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 13.6% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Kings | 84 | 15 | 17 | 32 | — | 48 | — | 1 | — | 14:11 | — | — | 127 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Kirby Dach (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 · vs SJS | |||||
| P3 02:12 | EV | Goal | #? (Haula) → 6-1 | Haula · Connors Gustafsson · Clarke | Toffoli · Bystedt · Stenberg Orlov · Pohlkamp Askarov (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs BUF | |||||
| P3 01:29 | EV | Assist | #? (Laughton, Armia) → 2-2 | Armia · Laughton Doughty · Edmundson | Malenstyn · Kozak · Benson Crevier · Zellweger Luukkonen (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs OTT | |||||
| P2 10:54 | EV | Goal | Armia → 4-1 | Armia · Laughton · Lee Dumoulin · Anderson | Batherson · Cozens · Halliday Sanderson · Zub Johansson (G) · Ersson (G) |
| Oct 26 · @ NYR | |||||
| P1 04:52 | EV | Assist | Clarke (Laughton, Armia) → 2-0 | Panarin · Laughton · Armia · Haula Gustafsson · Clarke | Raddysh · Kartye · Laba Durzi · Pettersson Reimer (G) |
| Oct 20 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 18:15 | EV | Assist | Laughton (Armia, Haula) → 5-2 | Haula · Armia · Laughton Doughty · Edmundson | Protas · Miroshnichenko · Leonard · Protas Hutson Thompson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Joel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Laughton LAK | 69 | 10 | |
| Erik Haula LAK | 64 | 10 | |
| Drew Doughty LAK | 57 | 10 | |
| Brian Dumoulin LAK | 49 | 10 | |
| Mikey Anderson LAK | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats