Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots168 × 0.1+16.8
- PIM76 × 0.05+3.8
- ice time (min)1337 × 0.01+13.4
- total115 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242115 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 115 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 1.8/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for MIN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 40 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.7% (1454 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.4%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Devils | 23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3.5% | 42.5% |
| 2017-18 | Devils | 79 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:24 | 2 | 0 | 146 | 8.9% | 46.9% |
| 2018-19 | Devils | 78 | 22 | 14 | 36 | -19 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17:01 | 3 | 0 | 213 | 10.3% | 41.6% |
| 2019-20 | Devils | 57 | 21 | 10 | 31 | -2 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 17:02 | 2 | 0 | 182 | 11.5% | 31.9% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 55 | 14 | 17 | 31 | 15 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15:28 | 3 | 1 | 122 | 11.5% | 22.2% |
| 2021-22 | Flames | 81 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 16 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:49 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 7.5% | 10.5% |
| 2022-23 | Flames | 82 | 18 | 20 | 38 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:12 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 9.6% | 47.6% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 78 | 30 | 24 | 54 | 19 | 76 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:08 | 7 | 0 | 191 | 15.7% | 44.9% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 82 | 15 | 24 | 39 | -2 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:41 | 4 | 0 | 194 | 7.7% | 48.1% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 69 | 20 | 15 | 35 | 12 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17:20 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 11.4% | 37.1% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 21 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 15:55 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 12.2% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 18 | 16 | 34 | — | 63 | — | 5 | — | 15:39 | — | — | 156 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Nick Paul (2025-25) · Brett Howden (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 07:34 | EV | Assist | #? (Coleman, Yurov) → 4-2 | Coleman · Brink · Yurov Spurgeon | Paul · Cowan Ekman-Larsson · Mermis · Raddysh Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 00:55 | EV | Goal | #? (Maatta, #?) → 1-0 | Ek · Brink Bogosian · Maatta | Kucherov · Guentzel · Point Cernak · D'Astous Hildeby (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 04:37 | EV | Assist | #? (Coleman, Brink) → 2-0 | Coleman · Brink Bogosian · Maatta | Cates · Michkov · Martone York · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ WSH | |||||
| P1 05:27 | EV | Assist | #? (Coleman, Brink) → 2-0 | Coleman · Brink Maatta · Spacek | Ovechkin · Beauvillier · Protas Ivany · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ SEA | |||||
| P2 02:11 | EV | Goal | Coleman (Kiersted) → 2-1 | Trenin · Coleman · Yurov Bogosian · Kiersted | Samoskevich · Kakko · Gaudreau Dunn · Montour Daccord (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Blake over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Brink MIN | 125 | 10 | |
| Michael McCarron MIN | 79 | 9 | |
| Ryan Hartman MIN | 61 | 10 | |
| Jonas Brodin MIN | 58 | 10 | |
| Zach Bogosian MIN | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats