Ryan Hartman
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM50 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1099 × 0.01+11
- total73 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24273 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 73 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.5 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for MIN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.8
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.3% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.9% (1348 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.5 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.1%, worth PD −1.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Blackhawks | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:17 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Blackhawks | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| 2016-17 | Blackhawks | 76 | 19 | 12 | 31 | 13 | 70 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:46 | 4 | 1 | 170 | 11.2% | 40.3% |
| 2017-18 | Blackhawks | 57 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:48 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 8.3% | 46.2% |
| 2017-18 | Predators | 21 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 9.1% | 37.5% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 64 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 2 | 0 | 113 | 8.8% | 15.4% |
| 2018-19 | Flyers | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 6.3% | 66.7% |
| 2019-20 | Wild | 69 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 4 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:15 | 1 | 0 | 114 | 7.9% | 54.6% |
| 2020-21 | Wild | 51 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15:04 | 2 | 0 | 74 | 9.5% | 41.5% |
| 2021-22 | Wild | 82 | 34 | 31 | 65 | 31 | 95 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 18:11 | 7 | 1 | 239 | 14.2% | 44.8% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 59 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16:18 | 6 | 0 | 149 | 10.1% | 42.9% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 74 | 21 | 24 | 45 | 4 | 72 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 16:31 | 3 | 0 | 173 | 12.1% | 47.0% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 69 | 11 | 15 | 26 | -7 | 75 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14:58 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 7.0% | 47.8% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 76 | 23 | 20 | 43 | -1 | 48 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 16:45 | 4 | 0 | 167 | 13.8% | 45.3% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 21 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:08 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4.3% | 49.5% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 10 | 18 | 28 | — | 47 | — | 6 | — | 13:52 | — | — | 116 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · William Carrier (2025-25) · Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Nick Cousins (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 03:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Hartman, Bogosian) → 3-2 | Hartman · Kaprizov Bogosian · Kiersted | Tavares · Nylander · Cowan Ekman-Larsson · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs NYI | |||||
| P2 17:21 | EV | Assist | Hughes (Hartman, #?) → 2-2 | Coleman · Hartman · Brink Bogosian · Hughes | Cizikas · Palat · Chaffee Pelech · Stanley Sorokin (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ SEA | |||||
| P2 11:33 | EV | Assist | Maatta (Hartman) → 3-1 | Trenin · Hartman · Shabanov Maatta · Brodin | Eberle · Beniers · Kakko Larsson · Dunn Daccord (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ryan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Brink MIN | 62 | 10 | |
| Blake Coleman MIN | 61 | 10 | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN | 59 | 10 | |
| Jonas Brodin MIN | 43 | 10 | |
| Zach Bogosian MIN | 39 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats