Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots181 × 0.1+18.1
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1194 × 0.01+11.9
- total95 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24295 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 95 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.5 SOG/game lately vs 2.9 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.3% shooting on 41 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.1% (1172 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.6%, worth PD −2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Islanders | 37 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -1 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 15:11 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 7.9% | 44.1% |
| 2014-15 | Islanders | 81 | 17 | 33 | 50 | 23 | 47 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 15:24 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 9.5% | 46.7% |
| 2015-16 | Islanders | 71 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -9 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 15:39 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 6.1% | 41.0% |
| 2016-17 | Islanders | 69 | 13 | 17 | 30 | -8 | 40 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14:36 | 2 | 0 | 114 | 11.4% | 42.7% |
| 2017-18 | Oilers | 82 | 13 | 21 | 34 | -4 | 33 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15:13 | 3 | 0 | 147 | 8.8% | 44.3% |
| 2018-19 | Oilers | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3.3% | 48.8% |
| 2018-19 | Rangers | 63 | 18 | 15 | 33 | -2 | 50 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 15:54 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 22.5% | 47.2% |
| 2019-20 | Rangers | 70 | 18 | 41 | 59 | 21 | 48 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 19:35 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 11.7% | 47.5% |
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 56 | 14 | 35 | 49 | 6 | 39 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 18:16 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 10.9% | 43.2% |
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 74 | 21 | 33 | 54 | 15 | 69 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 18:19 | 5 | 0 | 161 | 13.0% | 44.4% |
| 2022-23 | Ducks | 82 | 15 | 26 | 41 | -30 | 79 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17:02 | 2 | 2 | 130 | 11.5% | 43.8% |
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 79 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -20 | 86 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 15:48 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 8.4% | 46.1% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 82 | 10 | 31 | 41 | -3 | 70 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 16:41 | 3 | 0 | 137 | 7.3% | 41.7% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 33 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 8.6% | 47.0% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 19 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:15 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 22.7% | 44.7% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 7.3% | 34.3% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 14 | 19 | 33 | — | 44 | — | 3 | — | 14:35 | — | — | 160 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Alexandre Texier (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 07:41 | PP | Assist | #? (Strome, Sharangovich) → 1-2 | Strome · Sharangovich · Suniev Parekh | Zibanejad · Tolvanen Pettersson · Schneider Korpisalo (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ COL | |||||
| P3 01:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Strome, Parekh) → 2-4 | Strome · Gridin Kuznetsov · Parekh | Kadri · Schwartz · Hughes Burns · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs SEA | |||||
| P3 18:14 | EV | Goal | #? (Gridin, Pospisil) → 6-2 | Pospisil · Gridin Kuznetsov · Nemec | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Samoskevich Dunn · Fleury Daccord (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 17:04 | EV | Goal | Strome (Frost, Gridin) → 3-1 | Frost · Strome · Gridin Whitecloud · Middleton | Rasmussen · Danielson · Compher Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ryan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Gridin CGY | 105 | 10 | |
| Martin Pospisil CGY | 96 | 10 | |
| Simon Nemec CGY | 56 | 10 | |
| Zach Whitecloud CGY | 45 | 10 | |
| Jacob Middleton CGY | 41 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats