Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 59?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points22 × 0.5+11
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots186 × 0.1+18.6
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1349 × 0.01+13.5
- total142 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242142 = 59/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 142 points is 59 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 10.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.9% shooting on 42 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.9% (70 shots before this season) — that's 0.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.9%, worth PD −0.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Flames | 37 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -14 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 15:10 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 8.6% | 17.6% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:04 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 22 | 28 | 49 | — | 23 | — | 14 | — | 15:43 | — | — | 164 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PHI | |||||
| P4 04:08 | EV | Assist | Coronato (Gridin, Nemec) → 4-3 | Coronato · Gridin Nemec | Dvorak · Tippett York Vladar (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs SEA | |||||
| P2 08:43 | PP | Goal | #? (Farabee, Coronato) → 3-1 | Frost · Farabee · Coronato Parekh | Gaudreau · Meyers Montour · Evans Grubauer (G) |
| P3 18:14 | EV | Assist | #? (Gridin, Pospisil) → 6-2 | Pospisil · Gridin Kuznetsov · Nemec | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Samoskevich Dunn · Fleury Daccord (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs TOR | |||||
| P1 10:05 | EV | Goal | Gridin (Pospisil, Nemec) → 1-0 | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Bahl · Nemec | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Mermis · Ekman-Larsson Bobrovsky (G) |
| P2 00:25 | PP | Goal | Gridin (Parekh, Cooley) → 3-0 | Frost · Coronato · Farabee · Gridin Parekh | Sissons · Blueger McCabe · Stecher Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Matvei over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strome CGY | 105 | 10 | |
| Martin Pospisil CGY | 100 | 10 | |
| Zayne Parekh CGY | 67 | 10 | |
| Simon Nemec CGY | 51 | 10 | |
| Zach Whitecloud CGY | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats