Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots124 × 0.1+12.4
- PIM80 × 0.05+4
- ice time (min)1137 × 0.01+11.4
- total91 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24291 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 91 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.7% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 8.3% (250 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.1%, worth PD +0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Flames | 63 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 14 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 1 | 0 | 117 | 6.8% | 45.1% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 81 | 4 | 21 | 25 | 3 | 84 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13:48 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 3.5% | 40.8% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 22 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5.3% | 47.1% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 44.8% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 14 | 19 | 33 | — | 64 | — | 0 | — | 14:10 | — | — | 131 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Phillip Di Giuseppe (2023-23) · Kyle Turris (2020-20) · Fedor Svechkov (2025-25) · Joey Anderson (2023-23) · Max Jones (2023-23).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PHI | |||||
| P3 08:27 | SH | Assist | #? (Pospisil) → 3-3 | Pospisil Hanley · Middleton | Dvorak · Konecny · Tippett · Foerster Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ COL | |||||
| P3 01:59 | EV | Goal | #? (Strome, Parekh) → 2-4 | Strome · Gridin Kuznetsov · Parekh | Kadri · Schwartz · Hughes Burns · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs SEA | |||||
| P3 18:14 | EV | Assist | #? (Gridin, Pospisil) → 6-2 | Pospisil · Gridin Kuznetsov · Nemec | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Samoskevich Dunn · Fleury Daccord (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs TOR | |||||
| P1 10:05 | EV | Assist | Gridin (Pospisil, Nemec) → 1-0 | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Bahl · Nemec | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Mermis · Ekman-Larsson Bobrovsky (G) |
| P3 19:21 | EV | Goal | Pospisil (Gridin, Nemec) → 5-2 | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Bahl · Nemec | Sissons · MacEwen · Paul · Lettieri Raddysh · Ekman-Larsson |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Martin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Gridin CGY | 100 | 10 | |
| Ryan Strome CGY | 96 | 10 | |
| Zach Whitecloud CGY | 55 | 10 | |
| Jacob Middleton CGY | 45 | 10 | |
| Yan Kuznetsov CGY | 44 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats