Jonathan Marchessault
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 44?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points30 × 0.5+15
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots186 × 0.1+18.6
- PIM24 × 0.05+1.2
- ice time (min)1396 × 0.01+14
- total107 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242107 = 44/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 107 points is 44 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 5 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 10 of 15 for NSH — missed 5 games (2026-11-05, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-11, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −3.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.5% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.2% (2046 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.6%, worth PD −3.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Blue Jackets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Lightning | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| 2015-16 | Lightning | 45 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -10 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 12:05 | 1 | 0 | 81 | 8.6% | 48.1% |
| 2016-17 | Panthers | 75 | 30 | 21 | 51 | -21 | 38 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 16:55 | 6 | 1 | 193 | 15.5% | 45.2% |
| 2017-18 | Golden Knights | 77 | 27 | 48 | 75 | 36 | 40 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 17:30 | 6 | 2 | 268 | 10.1% | 43.5% |
| 2018-19 | Golden Knights | 82 | 25 | 34 | 59 | 2 | 52 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 18:09 | 6 | 1 | 278 | 9.0% | 37.3% |
| 2019-20 | Golden Knights | 66 | 22 | 25 | 47 | 6 | 28 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 17:17 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 9.4% | 42.6% |
| 2020-21 | Golden Knights | 55 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 19 | 39 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 17:25 | 4 | 2 | 176 | 10.2% | 46.6% |
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 76 | 30 | 36 | 66 | 3 | 36 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 17:34 | 4 | 0 | 251 | 12.0% | 43.0% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 76 | 28 | 29 | 57 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 17:08 | 4 | 1 | 234 | 12.0% | 37.5% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 82 | 42 | 27 | 69 | -2 | 40 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 17:54 | 5 | 2 | 266 | 15.8% | 25.0% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 78 | 21 | 35 | 56 | -29 | 37 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 17:59 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 10.2% | 25.4% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 62 | 12 | 19 | 31 | -18 | 30 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 16:42 | 1 | 0 | 132 | 9.1% | 41.9% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16:37 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6.5% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 13 | 19 | 32 | — | 33 | — | 14 | — | 15:57 | — | — | 162 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Barrett Hayton (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 8 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · vs NYI | |||||
| P2 09:42 | PP | Assist | Forsberg (Marchessault, Stamkos) → 1-3 | Forsberg · Marchessault · O'Reilly · Stamkos Josi | Horvat · Cizikas Pelech · Pulock Varlamov (G) |
| Oct 25 · vs COL | |||||
| P2 17:29 | PP | Assist | O'Reilly (Marchessault, Forsberg) → 5-0 | Forsberg · Marchessault · O'Reilly · Stamkos Josi | Svechkov · O'Connor Toews · Makar Wedgewood (G) |
| Oct 17 · vs STL | |||||
| P1 08:40 | PP | Goal | Marchessault → 1-1 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Marchessault · Forsberg Josi | Buchnevich · Thomas Parayko · Broberg Binnington (G) |
| Oct 15 · vs SJS | |||||
| P3 09:05 | PP | Assist | O'Reilly (Marchessault, Josi) → 1-2 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Marchessault · Forsberg Josi | Wennberg · Graf Orlov · Kesselring Nedeljkovic (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jonathan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi NSH | 77 | 10 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly NSH | 60 | 10 | |
| Steven Stamkos NSH | 59 | 10 | |
| Filip Forsberg NSH | 52 | 10 | |
| Mavrik Bourque NSH | 47 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats