Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 26?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1113 × 0.01+11.1
- total64 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24264 = 26/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 64 points is 26 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 5.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.7% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.4% (604 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.9%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Penguins | 28 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:03 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 18.2% | 44.6% |
| 2019-20 | Penguins | 69 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 2 | 0 | 102 | 8.8% | 45.2% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 43 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:51 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 14.3% | 48.7% |
| 2021-22 | Penguins | 65 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:01 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 9.7% | 53.1% |
| 2022-23 | Penguins | 45 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 1 | 0 | 62 | 3.2% | 50.1% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 18 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 8.7% | 56.1% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 68 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:56 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 6.2% | 53.1% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 82 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -7 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 8.5% | 50.2% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 35 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -12 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16:31 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 17.6% | 48.1% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 8.7% | 49.7% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 10 | 13 | 23 | — | 22 | — | 1 | — | 13:58 | — | — | 116 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Nico Sturm (2025-25) · William Carrier (2025-25) · Joel Kiviranta (2025-25) · Noel Acciari (2025-25) · Jason Dickinson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs MIN | |||||
| P2 06:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Blueger, #?) → 2-1 | Blueger · McKenna Mermis · McWard | Foligno · Foligno · Hartman Bogosian · Kiersted Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 12:34 | EV | Assist | #? (Rielly, Blueger) → 3-1 | Blueger · Duhaime Tanev · Rielly | Gallagher · Cotter · Sasson Schenn · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| P3 18:24 | EV | Goal | #? (Nylander, Stolarz) → 4-2 | Nylander · Matthews Tanev · McCabe | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Rossi Hronek Merilainen (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs NYR | |||||
| P1 10:01 | EV | Goal | Blueger (Duhaime, MacEwen) → 2-1 | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Stecher · Rielly | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Schneider · Smits Garand (G) |
| P2 08:00 | EV | Assist | Duhaime (MacEwen, Blueger) → 3-3 | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Blankenburg · Ekman-Larsson | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Durzi · Pettersson Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Teddy over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Duhaime TOR | 87 | 10 | |
| Zack MacEwen TOR | 71 | 10 | |
| Jake McCabe TOR | 60 | 10 | |
| Troy Stecher TOR | 57 | 10 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson TOR | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats