Troy Stecher
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 41?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists14 × 1+14
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM71 × 0.05+3.6
- ice time (min)1605 × 0.01+16.1
- total68 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16668 = 41/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 68 points is 41 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 8.7% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.4% (554 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.0 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.6%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Ekman-Larsson 0.0%, Paul 9.5%, Blueger 8.7%, Cowan 17.1%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Canucks | 71 | 3 | 21 | 24 | -16 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 19:59 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Canucks | 68 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:49 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Canucks | 78 | 2 | 21 | 23 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 19:55 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Canucks | 69 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Red Wings | 44 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -13 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Red Wings | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Kings | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 61 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Flames | 20 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 47 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 66 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 58 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 7 | 14 | 20 | — | 64 | — | 0 | — | 19:06 | — | — | 99 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Zach Bogosian (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Brendan Smith (2024-24) · Nicolas Hague (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs MIN | |||||
| P2 06:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Blueger, #?) → 2-1 | Blueger · McKenna Mermis · McWard | Foligno · Foligno · Hartman Bogosian · Kiersted Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 28 · @ SEA | |||||
| P3 08:02 | EV | Assist | Roslovic (Cowan, Stecher) → 3-4 | Cowan · Roslovic Stecher · Ekman-Larsson | Meyers · Gaudreau Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| Oct 26 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 12:54 | EV | Assist | Cowan (Stecher, Rielly) → 1-3 | Sissons · Cowan · McKenna Stecher · Rielly | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Parekh · Kuznetsov Cooley (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 06:23 | EV | Goal | Stecher (Marchenko, Rielly) → 3-0 | Paul · Marchenko · Nylander Stecher · Rielly | Hallander · Kapanen · Nugent-Hopkins Emberson · Mukhamadullin Jarry (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 19:32 | EV | Goal | Stecher (Rielly, Duhaime) → 5-4 | Sissons · Paul · Duhaime · Nylander Stecher · Rielly | Miller · Kartye · Cuylle Schneider · Gavrikov Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Troy over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson TOR | 84 | 10 | |
| Nick Paul TOR | 61 | 10 | |
| Teddy Blueger TOR | 57 | 10 | |
| Easton Cowan TOR | 48 | 10 | |
| Brandon Duhaime TOR | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats