Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 34?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots88 × 0.1+8.8
- PIM50 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1364 × 0.01+13.6
- total83 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24283 = 34/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 83 points is 34 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.5% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.7% (886 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.1%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Senators | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 7.1% | 51.7% |
| 2016-17 | Senators | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 38.5% |
| 2017-18 | Senators | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:54 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9.1% | 25.0% |
| 2018-19 | Senators | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3.3% | 45.7% |
| 2019-20 | Senators | 56 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:27 | 2 | 0 | 103 | 8.7% | 51.2% |
| 2020-21 | Senators | 56 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16:05 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 4.8% | 52.1% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 59 | 11 | 7 | 18 | -18 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:22 | 1 | 0 | 131 | 8.4% | 49.0% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 21 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:06 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 14.3% | 56.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 80 | 17 | 15 | 32 | 11 | 33 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16:10 | 4 | 0 | 120 | 14.2% | 53.7% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 82 | 24 | 22 | 46 | -16 | 27 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 17:16 | 2 | 0 | 153 | 15.7% | 54.3% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 76 | 22 | 19 | 41 | 13 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16:27 | 3 | 1 | 141 | 15.6% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 51 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13:41 | 1 | 0 | 68 | 10.3% | 53.9% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 9.5% | 46.2% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 12 | 22 | 34 | — | 47 | — | 2 | — | 15:50 | — | — | 114 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · William Carrier (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs COL | |||||
| P2 19:31 | EV | Assist | #? (McKenna, Paul) → 2-3 | Paul · Tverberg · McKenna Ekman-Larsson | Necas · Kelly · O'Connor Kulak · Makar Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ VAN | |||||
| P1 01:23 | EV | Assist | #? (#?, #?) → 1-0 | Sissons · Joshua Ekman-Larsson · Stecher | O'Connor · Rossi · Lekkerimaki Oleksiak · Willander Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nick over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson TOR | 63 | 10 | |
| Troy Stecher TOR | 61 | 10 | |
| William Nylander TOR | 54 | 10 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 49 | 10 | |
| Jake McCabe TOR | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats